Jack Straw claimed yesterday that Gordon Brown was secure in his job and would not be ousted may now be showing signs of strain as it appears that Gordon Brown's leadership is very much on the agenda.
Guido says that:
"If UKIP were to beat Labour, Nigel Farage is right, Brown would have to go. No amount of spin that 'all mainstream politics is disgraced' would save Gordon, that would only make sense if the Tories were beaten by UKIP as well. Just as the end of David Owen’s SDP was signaled by them losing to the Monster Raving Loony Party, UKIP beating Gordon would confirm his demise."
The scenario goes like this:
It's the morning after the polls of Thursday 4th June 2009 Labour’s local elections percentage poll drops below the previous low-point.
The Liberal Democrats or United Kingdom Independence Party beat Labour on the percentage share of the vote in the European Parliamentary Elections.
The Sunday press take a beligerant view of Brown with Labour MPs clamoring openly for him to stand down.
If Sarah Brown can’t or won’t save him from humiliating himself that weekend, he will on the Monday 8th June 8 2009 have to face the Parliamentary Labour Party without spin doctor McBride and unable any longer to put the press frighteners on critics as much as in the past.
Then a recent former cabinet member making will make a 'Geoffrey Howe' speech. Probably not Messrs. Clarke or Byers, it will have to be someone who has not previously ventured abouve the parapet, someone who has served in Brown’s cabinet, someone like Peter Hain or Ruth Kelly. 'For the good of the party and the good of the nation' he will be implored to go. If the mood of the room goes against him, he will fall shortly after, much as the Speaker went.
Guido’s source cautions that we have been here before and Brown has a knack of hanging on by his fingernails. Guido however does report that Campaign Teams are however being assembled in readiness with the weekend of 12th/13th June 2009 pencilled in for them to break cover.
Miliband's Special Advisor Sarah Schaefer has sounded out a team ready to go within weeks and Alan Johnson’s unsuccessful deputy leadership campaign team is also clearing the decks.