Sunday, 10 January 2010

GE2010: General Election Summary Days #5, #6 & #7

It has been done carefully but the Conservative are talking about immigration again. The level is a fraction of that which immigration received under former leader, Michael Howard MP, but there is definitely more attitude from the Conservatives on the topic. Yesterday we had Chris Grayling's announcement of a battery of measures that would deal with the weakest link in the current immigration system; the student visa system. Today David Cameron told Andrew Marr that he wanted to cut immigration to 'tens of thousands'.
In the graph from Fraser Nelson we can see the significance of that pledge if it was honoured.

The Conservatives have announced three other policies in recent days that should encourage the Conservative core-vote. On Friday there was the pledge to give headteachers more powers to sack failing teachers. Overnight there was the well-received commitment to provide scholarships to the children of servicemen killed in action and this morning David Cameron announced measures to help small businesses.

The events in Northern Ireland may be good for the Conservatives if the General Election is called sooner rather than later. The troubles of First Minsiter, Peter Robinson and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) could benefit the Northern Ireland alliance of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) and Conservatives. Tim Mongomery's wrote about this on ConservativeHome. Ten seats is the upper limit of possibilities but five or six seats is now very possible (potentially giving David Cameron more MPs in Northern Ireland than in Scotland).

It was another bad weekend for 'Shambles' Brown. Congratulations to Iain Dale for publishing Peter Watt's insidery account of the 'shambles' of Brown's Downing Street operation and of the aborted £1.5 million plan for a honeymoon election in 2007. Watch the Sky News report here.

Alistair Darling spoke the truth about public spending. David Cameron told Andrew Marr that the Chancellor's interview for the Saturday Times was an important moment and it was. Darling warned that

"The next spending review will be the toughest we have had for 20 years."
He told the truth and the fact that he said it shows he's no longer under Brown's thumb.

No big movement in the polls following the SnowStorm plot. It is only one poll but ICM's survey for The Sunday Telegraph suggested the Conservative lead is stable at about 10%. The ICM numbers are 40% Conervatives, 30% Labour and 17.4% Liberal Democrat.

Acknowledgement: ConservativeHome | ToryDiary | 10/01/10

No comments: