Tuesday, 16 March 2010

Poll Watch: Conservatives Regain Lead Over Labour As Lib Dems Get Post Conference Bounce

Three polls are out today. An ICM survey for The Guardian has Conservatives on 40% (up 2%), Labour on 31% (n/c) and the Liberal Democrats on 20% (down 1%) based on changes from the ICM survey in the Sunday Telegraph at the weekend. This gives the Conservatives a nine point lead and will settle party nerves and would potentially give a small majority to Mr. Cameron, if a non-uniform swing occurs, with marginal seats swinging more greatly to the Conservatives. The forty percent mark is seen as a crucial benchmark for the party being successful in a General Election.

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,002 adults by telephone on 12-14 March 2010. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.

New pollsters Opinium have a poll in The Express which gives the Conservatives an even greater lead of eleven points. And gives figures, with changes based on their previous poll from last week, of: Conservatives on 39% (up 2%), Labour on 28% (down 2%) and the Liberal Democrats on 16% (n/c)

Opinium surveyed 1,951 adults in England, Wales and Scotland for the voter intention survey Friday, 12th through Monday, 15th March 2010.

Finally the YouGov daily tracker, published in The Sun, has a more modest conservative lead of 5%, but once again shows a widening gap between Labour and Conservatives. The poll has Conservatives on 37% (n/c), Labour on 32% (down 1%) and the Liberal Democrats on 21% (up 4%), with changes based on the previous day's poll. The Liberal Democrats seem to be enjoying something of a post conference boost.

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