The mood in the Conservative camp is one of 'undisguised mirth', as David Crow put it, at the election of Ed Miliband as Leader of the Labour Party.
Leader of the Labour Party
Ed Miliband MP.
On Saturday night, shortly after the result was announced, staff at Conservative headquarters in London were, it is understood, popping open the champagne. Advisers to Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron think the next election is more winnable than ever.
Much of this relief is understandable. Ed Miliband’s victory has sounded the death knell for New Labour, that election-winning machine which the party had come to hate. The Conservatives have always said Tony Blair was unbeatable and feared that David Miliband, his last disciple, would also prove a tough opponent.
Ed Miliband sees no shame in closing the door on the Blairite past, and everything it stood for.
"The era of New Labour has passed, a new generation has taken over."
Were the word used yesterday, in his first major interview since winning the crown, with the BBC's Andrew Marr.
There is nothing 'new' however, about the team that now leads Labour. Ken Livingstone is not only the party’s mayoral candidate, but also topped the poll in the race to sit on the party's governing body - the National Executive Committee. Lord Kinnock, red-flag bearer for the left wing, was one of Ed Miliband’s most vocal supporters. Despite Blair’s attempts to consign them to history, the union barons are once again an important voice in the political debate.
Beyond the same old faces. Gone is the emphasis on social mobility, on reward for hard work and entrepreneurial spirit. It will be replaced by 'equality', essentially old-fashioned redistribution of wealth. Labour no longer wants to have more pie – it just wants to cut it up more evenly.
The banks will be bashed; the rich will be soaked; the private sector will be banished from public services. This is the manifesto on which Labour will fight the next election.
For Ed Miliband is not the joke that his opponents are trying to portray him as. No, he is not as good as Blair, few politicians are. But he is still a credible leader considering recent peers.
Susan Boyle of X-Factor fame
before and after.
He is much better than Neil Kinnock, the 'Welsh windbag' that voters simply would not vote for in 1992 – no matter how much they hated John Major and his completely divided government. As Gordon Brown’s favourite number cruncher, he is clearly economically literate, unlike Harriet Harman, and will be able to twist facts and figures to attack the government as only a Brownite can. He is no professional for the media, but his smile is nowhere near as scary as Brown’s, and the transformations that can be managed today, with a little coaching, are staggering - think Susan Boyle.
If he can convince the big trade unions to keep industrial unrest in check, his populist brand of socialism could tap into the banker-bashing zeitgeist. As could his claim that the deficit can be reduced without much pain. Voters might say they back tough cuts right now, but it is easy to say that before their impact starts to bite.
Worst of all for David Cameron is that Ed Miliband is a relative unknown – both in politics and public. A fresh face gives him an enormous advantage - which his brother, David Miliband, would not have had
Gordon Brown will announce this morning that the general election will, as expected, be held on Thursday 6th May 2010 and coinside with local government elections to West Lindsey District and Lincoln City Councils.
The Prime Minister, Gordon Brown MP, is expected to go to Buckingham Palace to ask the Queen to dissolve Parliament around 10 o'clock this morning. On returning from the Palace the Prime Minister will formally confirm the date and make a speech in Downing Street in which he will dub the election 'the big choice'.
Mr Brown is expected to say:
"The people have fought too hard to get Britain on the road to recovery to allow anybody to take us back to the road to recession."
The economy, taxation and public services will be key battlegrounds. The campaign will also feature, for the first time, live television debates between the three main party leaders. It will be the first time that Mr Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg have led their respective parties into a general election.
Locally the key battlegrounds will be the Cleethorpes, Brigg & Goole and Lincoln constituencies.
The Chancellor has decided to freeze all income tax bands, which will lead people to pay more tax on their earnings.
The tactic is being described as a classic 'stealth tax' by the Daily Telegraph and will be far larger than previously attempted. Personal allowances were last frozen almost a decade ago.
Every higher-rate taxpayer earning more than £43,875 will pay an additional £489 in tax as a result of the move, and 75,000 more people will pay this higher-rate tax for the first time.
The level at which inheritance tax becomes payable will also be frozen.
The moves are expected to be confirmed in the small print of the Budget and the rates will apply from next month.
The income tax grab comes on top of the new 50p higher rate of income tax which will come into effect next month for those earning more than £150,000.
Mr. Darling will also remove tax breaks for those earning more than £100,000. The targeting of people earning more than £100,000 is expected to raise an additional £1.2 billion.
Mr. Darling is also expected to confirm that Government borrowing is on course to total more than £1 trillion over the next few years following the 'extraordinary' actions taken to tackle the financial crisis. But speaking to Parliament at 12:30 this afternoon, he will refuse to sanction any immediate cuts to public spending, warning that it may endanger the recovery.
The Chancellor, who may have to cross a picket line of striking civil servants in order to deliver his third Budget, will today deliver what he promises will be a 'sensible, workmanlike' package of financial measures.
Mr. Darling is still expected to unveil billions of pounds in new public spending. He will announce that £1 billion of taxpayers’ money will be used for a new green investment fund. Extra money will also be earmarked to help the long-term unemployed. Schools are also set to be given extra funding.
The extra spending will be paid from the extra tax take. Government borrowing is also expected to be about £10 billion less than expected which has given Mr. Darling some room for manoeuvre.
Among the measures he is expected to announce is a new drive to stop tax evasion; a move to force banks to offer bank accounts to anyone who wants one in an effort to help those who see it as a barrier to employment; and he will update MPs on how far he has progressed to get international agreement on a global bank levy.
But discussions are still taking place over whether Mr Darling could afford to halt a planned 3p rise in fuel duty. If he does go ahead with it will mean motorists will have to pay even higher pump prices at a time when they are already heading through the 120p a litre barrier because of soaring oil prices.
There is also likely to be bad news for drinkers with a planned 5% increase on all wine and spirits.
Mr Darling is expected to revise down slightly the borrowing figures and will use it as a sign that the worst for the economy is over and that a feared 'double-dip' recession will not happen.
In a statement last night the Chancellor could not resist a barbed comment directed at Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Mr. Darling said Britain had come
"through what had been the most difficult circumstances for well in excess of 60 years."
When the Chancellor stated in the autumn of 2008 that the crisis would be the worst for 60 years he was attacked by Number 10. Last month, in an uncharacteristic intervention that lifted the lid on tensions between him and Mr. Brown, he admitted 'the forces of hell' had been unleashed on him by the Prime Minister’s advisers.
Mr. Darling attempted last year to play down the impact of freezing tax allowances as inflation was actually negative. However, inflation has now begun rising sharply which means the freezing of the tax bands is set to become a major financial issue. Inflation is currently running at three percent.
All of the main income tax bands will be frozen for the next year – including the tax-free allowance and the level at which higher-rate tax becomes payable.
This so-called 'fiscal drag' means that people pay proportionately more tax on their earnings, after receiving a pay rise. Most pay deals are linked to inflation. Income and other tax allowances typically rise in line with inflation.
If keeping pace with inflation, the tax-free personal allowance should rise from £6,475 to £6,669. However, by freezing the rate at £6,475, the Treasury will raise an additional £1 billion and every taxpayer will pay an extra £40 in tax.
The rate at which higher-rate tax is paid will also be frozen at £43,875. However, it should increase to £44,995. The Treasury will make an extra £450 million as a result - £489 for every higher-rate taxpayer, according to accountants.
The inheritance tax threshold is being frozen at £325,000 – which will raise £60m in extra revenues for the Treasury.
Last night, Mr. Mike Warburton, tax partner at Grant Thornton, the accountants, said:
"Inflation was negative last year so this was not an issue – but it certainly is not negative now. Freezing the allowances in this way shows ministers are back to their old stealth tax tricks."
The Conservatives will today warn of the extreme danger to the British economy if the debt problem is not addressed more quickly. The opposition have drawn up new research that shows the Government’s debt interest payments could reach more than £106 billion a year within five years.
Using what has happened in Greece as an example of how Britain’s debt problem could spiral. That figure would represent a trebling of the Government’s annual debt interest bill and it would be more than the annual NHS budget in England.
It would mean the cost of paying the interest on the national debt interest would rise from the equivalent of £24 per family per week to over £80 per week, or from £1,250 per year to £4,320 per year.
The Conservatives last night also announced that they are inviting people to dissect the Budget via the Tory party website – known as 'crowd sourcing'.
Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, is under strong pressure from 10 Downing Street to 'make an example' of whisky, gin and vodka drinkers when he makes his Commons statement later this month, the Drinker's Alliance claim.
The debate over the plans is further evidence of the tension between Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Mr. Darling, which boiled over last week when the Chancellor said No.10 had unleashed the 'forces of hell' on him after he predicted the recession would be the worst for 60 years.
Under the 'nuclear option' plan for increasing duty – designed to appease the health lobby and show that ministers are serious about tackling the problems caused by binge drinking – the cost of a bottle of spirits would rocket, along with the cost of spirit-based alcopops favoured by young drinkers.
A bottle of Bells whisky could rise from £14.79 to £23.73 while Gordon's gin, another favourite of middle-class drinkers, would increase from £12.79 to £21.17.
Even if Mr Darling imposed a less draconian rise, industry sources are braced for increases significantly above the five per cent already earmarked for beers, wines and spirits under the government's alcohol duty 'escalator'.
That ensured a two percent rise in duty above the level of inflation every year in the Budget for four years starting last year. Under Whitehall calculations, this year's escalator would be set at five per cent.
However, leading figures at No.10 are pressing the Chancellor to hammer spirits much harder, after a series of recommendations by MPs on the health select committee last year, Drinkers Alliance claim.
They say the report demanded that 'unlike in recent years, duty increases should predominantly be on stronger alcoholic drinks, notably on spirits'.
MPs called for a return to the level in 1983 when the duty on a litre of pure alcohol was 11 percent of the average male weekly manual wage, compared with 5 percent in 2002.
Such a move would send Britain to the top of the European league table for spirits tax.
Mr. Darling is understood to be fighting the calls for the very steepest possible increases – but Whitehall sources nevertheless expect him to introduce big rises in duty on spirits, in part to raise money to help cut Britain's record deficit.
The Budget – a key springboard for Labour's election campaign – is currently pencilled in by government planners for either Wednesday, 24th March 2010.
As The Sunday Telegraph has already revealed, Mr. Brown and Mr. Darling are at odds over the package, with the Prime Minister keen for it to contain spending increases on voter-friendly areas such as schools and hospitals, as well as jobs programmes for young people.
The Chancellor, however, is holding out firmly against a 'giveaway' Budget in favour of a 'realistic' statement to reassure markets that Labour is serious about reducing Britain's £178 million deficit.
There are claims the Treasury is also drawing up plans to increase VAT from 17.5 per cent to 20 per cent – something those close to Mr Brown would fiercely resist just before the general election.
Mr. Darling reopened hostilities with No.10 with his 'forces of hell' comments – understood to have been aimed at Messrs. Charlie Whelan and Damian McBride, Mr. Brown's former spin-doctors.
Hitting middle-class drinkers with big rises in the cost of spirits would be electorally risky. However, leading figures inside No.10 are understood to be concerned that Labour is not sending out a clear signal that it is ready to get tough on binge drinkers.
The Conservatives, by contrast, have already pledged to increase the duty on alcopops and super-strength beer and cider without necessarily lifting the duty on spirits.
A four-pack of super-strength lager would rise by £1.33 and a large bottle of alcopop would increase by £1.50, under Conservative plans.
Mr. Jeremy Beadles, Chief Executive of the Wine & Spirit Trade Association, said:
"We are a vital industry to the UK's recovery. It is clear the Chancellor is under real pressure to significantly increase the duty on spirits.
"Thousands of jobs are at risk. The hard-working people of this country should not be made to pay for the recession.
"They should be able to enjoy a drink in these times of hardship without being penalised by extra costs. They are already paying enough in taxes. Enough is enough."
More progress for the Welsh Conservatives. A YouGov poll last night for ITV Wales had the Conservatives on 32% (Up 1% point), Labour on 35% (Up 1% point), Liberal Democrats 13% (down 1% point) and Plaid Cymru 13 (down 1% point). That would mean nine more Conservative MPs from Wales if translated into a uniform swing on election day. UKPollingReport has more (here).
Labour plan five new pledges for the General Election campaign. Gordon Brown is drafting five reasons to vote Labour and five reasons to reject the Conservatives. ConservativeHome has more (here).
Overnight, there were newspaper stories of immediate cuts from the Conservatives, cuts in the arts budget, cuts in the aid budget, cuts in middle class welfare, cuts in defence. ConservativeHome front page was plastered with it (here). However, The Economist was not satisfied (here):
"The squeezes [George Osborne] identified amounted to £7 billion ($11.4 billion) a year. In 2009-10 the deficit is £178 billion."
David Cameron underperformed at Prime Minister Questions on Wednesday. The Evening Standard (here) did not think Mr. Cameron has really been winning PMQs for a couple of months now, nor can it be said he been losing. He normally provides enough of a strong soundbite for the news bulletins and that is where his battle is to be fought.
Grant Shapps, Conservative (Welwyn Hatfield) and Shadow Housing Minister, has had a hit rate in the media which has been truely remarkable. He had a big splash in yesterday's Sun (and other newspapers) which showed that government spending on propaganda advertising was soaring in this election run-up. Labour ministers, said Mr Shapps,
"should not be raiding the taxpayers' pockets to try to keep their own seats."
Meanwhile Nick Clegg, the Leader of the Liberal Democrats told Attitude, a gay lifestyle magazine, that David Cameron was
"someone who is 'very difficult to trust' on the issue of gay rights."
I wonder if he will play as dirty in the televised debates?
Watching the media, watching us. One of the most important roles that the blogosphere can play in the election campaign is to keep an eye out for media bias. Tim Montgomerie of ConservativeHome knockedThe Telegraph yesterday evening for a story that The Mirror would have been proud of (in fact, it was written by an ex-Mirror journalist now working for the Barclay Brothers). Iain Dale has a bigger target today. He's got the BBC's One Show in his cross-hairs for an appalling piece of anti-Conservative bias last night.
The big freeze became the big news story of the day virtually wiping out election stories. None of the parties launched big new initiatives, wisely deciding that any election initiatives would be buried in a snowdrift of weather stories.
David Miliband MP, The Foreign Secretary, was almost as much a loser from the SnowStorm Plot as Brown. Andrew Grice noted that the Foreign Secretary had sat on the fence during all three botched coup attempts against Brown 'and fallen off'. David Miliband's hesitation, yesterday, will have appealed to neither the loyalists nor the insurrectionists. As One Blogger put it:
"He ended up looking both tame and disloyal at the same time."
Mr. Miliband was, not of course, the only Cabinet minister to give a grudging endorsement of Brown. Iain Martin speculated that Darling even asked Brown to consider quitting. Andrew Neil concludes that the legacy of the SnowStorm Plot will be the "half-hearted" support that the PM enjoys from his Cabinet. Read my summary of events today here.
The Sun has fresh figures from YouGov in this morning's edition and show a shift back towards the Conservatives. The topline figures with changes from yesterday’s poll prior to the SnowStorm Plot are Conservative 42% (up 2 points) Labour 30% (down 1 point) Liberal Democrats 16%(down 1 point). The exact timings of the poll were between 4:00pm Wednesday and 12:00noon yesterday. Sample size was 2,832.
In Lincoln the Lincolnshire Echo published their first 'Question Time' article with Liberal Democrat Prospective Parliamentary Candidate, Cllr. Reg Shore (more here).
Janet Daley of The Daily Telegraph despite the chilly weather seems to be warming to the Conservative Party Leader, David Cameron MP. ConservativeHome summarised the Mr. Cameron's BBC Radio 4 Today Programme interview here. Janet Daley enjoyed his willingness to apologise for his marriage policy gaffe. She thought he has been coming out of his PR man years and becoming himself:
"Admitting that he had simply screwed up earlier in the week with his unintentionally ambiguous wording on the marriage question, he sounded as engagingly frank as he generally does in private conversation."
There have been a stream of anti-Hilton stories in recent days (another one last night) and it was rumoured by Tim Montgomerie to be 'coming from within the Conservative machine'. Mr. Steve Hilton has been vital in broadening the Conservative Party's appeal.
And finally, spotted on Gray's Inn Road, London; a defaced Tory poster spotted byVirtual Economics.
"Whether the SnowStorm Plot melts with the snow, or whether new developments, possibly tomorrow, keep the hopes, and the story, alive for those who would rather have a new leader for Labour, only time will tell."
It seems clear now that the revolt has died, although not without a handful lingering developments throughout the day.
As morning broke across the country, shortly before seven o'clock, with britons opening their curtains to another snow-covered scene Nick Clegg MP, the Liberal Democrat's Leader emerged on GMTV and weighted into the matter - better late than never. He echoed the view of the Conservative Party Chairman yesterday and said:
"We don't need a secret ballot, the country needs a General Election... The Labour party now is more interested in talking about itself."
He refused to answer questions about any possiblity of a Liberal Democrat - Conservative alliance in the event of a hung parliament, saying that the Liberal Democrat platform of "
fair taxes... smaller class sizes... a new economy and a completely new politics after the expenses scandal"
was what voters wanted him to be talking about.
Half an hour later Labour's Eric Joyce MP criticised what he called 'aristocrats at the top of the party' who he said believed they could stay quiet and let others get rid of the Prime Minister, but added that ultimately the failed attempt to unseat Gordon Brown would unify the party.
"The whole party will be much more unified, and the ambiguity will be gone.
"[The] aristocrats at the top of the party who thought that if they act coy they could inherit the leadership of the party.
"It’s quite destabilising for people to give hints to people like Geoff and Patricia.
"There’s an element of internal ambition where people aren’t prepared to take their own risk."
Twenty minutes later Cabinet Ministe Shaun Woodward MP insisted that he sits in a happy Cabinet, and that the reaction to the Hoon/Hewitt plan showed the Labour party supports Gordon Brown.
As the story began to die down as it started to be starved of the oxigen of publicity Jack Straw MP, Justice Secretary, accused the BBC's Nick Robinson of 'a very substandard piece of journalism', after the BBC Political Editor named Mr. Straw as one of six cabinet ministers willing to support yesterday’s call for a secret ballot on Gordon Brown’s leadership on the BBC's News at Ten. He said:
"I was named by Mr Nick Robinson of the BBC - he sent me an apology."
He went on to say that the Hoon/Hewitt plan had failed, and would have the ultimate effect of greater unity in the party.
"This extraordinary announcement yesterday by Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt has sunk. It was completely ill-judged and completely ill-advised.
"I think it will have the affect of bringing people behind his leadership even more.
"It is something we could easily have done with out – what we have got to is keep on and make the case for a Labour government."
At ten o'clock however it was Iain Martin of the Wall Street Journal who had the most significant and interesting detail from yesterday, he reported:
"I’ve heard from two Labour sources now that the conversation was very difficult and that Darling raised the possibility of Brown going, but the PM resisted. It would be taking it too far, says a well-placed MP, to say that the mild-mannered Darling told his old friend turned foe to call it a day. He said it was more that Darling floated the possibility of a swift departure for the sake of the party."
This was later rubbished by Niall Paterson of Sky News that an Aide to the Chancellor described it as 'categorically, unequivocally not true'.
Even the last Labour Deputy Prime Minsiter , John Prescott MP, entered the fray with a video blog on YouTube condeming the plotters suggesting that 'Patricia Hewitt, Geoff Hoon and Charles Clarke should be the ones facing secret ballots in their own constituency parties'.
As the morning continued David Miliband MP, Foreign Secretary insisted that all the Cabinet were united in their determination to win the next election under Gordon Brown’s leadership saying:
"No member of the government was involve in the letter - we are all determined to win the election under Gordon’s leadership."
On BBC 2's the Daily Politics Tony McNulty MP, denied that endorsements of Gordon Brown from cabinet members yesterday were lukewarm. There had been suggestions that statements from Mr. Brown's colleagues fell short of being ringing endorsements of Mr Brown's leadership throughout the morning.
Mr. McNulty instead suggested cabinet members are simply 'fed up' with having to say that Mr Brown is the right person for the leadership and added:
"The shame is this was on the end of a gaffe-prone week for the Conservatives."
After midday the Prime Minister, Gordon Brown MP, made his first public comments in a long-scheduled phone-in with BBC Radio Solent he said he was 'leading from the front' and would say 'what I think' even if at times it proved to be unpopular. He said:
"[E]very day there is a new problem, every day there is a new challenge - it is how you deal with it [that was important]."
Asked about events on Wednesday, he said:
"I was actually holding meetings, first of all about Afghanistan and about some of the terrorist implications of what had happened in America.
"And then, to be honest, for the rest of the day, I was dealing - as I am this morning - with how we can co-ordinate better our supply for dealing with these emergencies, so it's taken up very little of my time.
"I think it's one of these sidelines in this time when people are far more worried about - as they should be - about what we're doing to deal with the weather and how we're making sure that people are safe and secure.
"So it's not going to take up much of my time and hasn't certainly taken up much of my time today or will in future days."
And so around half past twelve today the SnowStorm Plot seemed to be over with the Prime Minister having the last word. But wait, no, what is this dark figure mincing towards us? None other that the master of the Dark Arts, (and presumably necromancy based on the number of time he's been back from the dead), Lord Mandelson who, as the sun set, reignited the flames of this narrative (which Gordon Brown had seemingly smothered at lunch time) saying that he was sure that Gordon Brown was the right man to lead Labour into a 'very vigorous, very effective' general election campaign.
"Yes I’m sure that Gordon Brown is the right man to lead us into an election campaign.
"[He] has a vision, has a huge knowledge of the economy… he has real drive, real determination.
"[Gordon Brown] will lead us into a very vigorous, very effective election campaign."
At the end of the day The Telegraphreported that Harriet Harman MP, Labour’s deputy leader, was being blamed for encouraging an attempted coup against Mr. Brown this week, with David Miliband MP, Foreign Secretary, also under suspicion of plotting.
The so-called SnowStorm Plot which found Prime Minister, Gordon Brown MP, faced a backbench revolt looks likely to melt away. Only the usual suspects have really backed the call of Patricia Hewitt MP and Geoff Hoon MP (two people rumoured to have wanted the High Representative of the European Union job that Gordon Brown MP gave to Baroness Ashton last year) for a secret ballot of Labour's MPs. The Labour Party now looks more divided after today. A massive gift so early in the Long Campaign for the Conservatives.
Gordon Brown won another PMQs. Brown seemed to just edge in front of Cameron at Prime Minister's Questions today. He was able to exploit the Conservative leader's unfortunate miscommunication of the party's policy on a married tax allowance on Monday although any feelings of triumph Gordon Brown felt no doubt ebbed away quickly following the SnowStorm Plot which developed throughout the afternoon and into the evening.
A good day for Eric Pickles. CCHQ was quick with a statement from the Conservtive Party Chairman and his media performances were perfectly pitched throughout the afternoon. Watch him here.
A bad day for the BBC's Nick Robinson who initially told viewers that there was no plot shortly before Simon Cavalier-Jones (Lincolnshire CF VIce Chairman) posted on The Conservative Blog and learnt there was one. He also dissed bloggers for suggesting that there was a plot. Guido Fawkes enjoyed some YouTube revenge.
The Spectator remains on the attack against Conservative Party Leader, David Cameron MP. Spectator Editor, Mr. Fraser Nelson, has adopted an aggressive tone towards Mr. Cameron since the start of 2010. The Conservative Party will not like the front cover of this week's Spectator. The edition includes an article by David 'Jeremiah' Selbourne that attacks every aspect of the Cameron agenda.
To conclude there is a new YouGov poll in the Sun this morning which have the Conservatives on 40%(no chance), Labour on 31%( up 1 point), Liberal Democrats on 17%(no change), so virtually no change from the previous YouGov poll between Christmas and New Year.
Former Ministers Geoff Hoon MP and Patricia Hewitt MP began a campaign today to remove Prime Minister Gordon Brown by calling for a ballot of the Parliamentary Labour Party.
Just as Labour seemed to be uniting in the final months before a General Election, Mr. Hoon and Mrs. Hewitt were, according to the BBC's Nick Robinson, reportedly texting other Labour MPs furiously requesting a secret Ballot on Gordon Brown's leadership.
My Conservative Future colleague, Simon Cavalier-Jones on The Conservative Blog broke the story, beating both the BBC and Sky.
In the early moments of this plot it was hard to judge what level of support the revolt had, but as the minutes turned to hours further details emerged. If they could get enough support and momentum behind them it could be the end of Gordon Brown's Premiership.
Veteran backbencher, Frank Field MP became the first Labour parliamentarian to come out and back the Hoon/Hewitt campaign (ConservativeHome calling it the SnowStorm Plot), hotly followed by former Labour Home Secretary, and perennial revoltee Charles Clarke MP.
A letter due for publication in tonight's London Evening Standard from Mrs. Hewitt and Mr. Hoon, set out the basis for the challenge - that they feel the issue of leadership and internal briefings is undermining the party.
Patricia Hewitt MP on the BBC Radio 4's World at One said:
"I have not spoken to David [Miliband] about this. I have not spoken to any cabinet member about this. This is not an attempted coup it is exactly what we say on the letter.
"It could be done very, very quickly it could actually be done next Monday with the result declared at the Parliamentary Labour Party meeting that happens every Monday."
One hour into the news breaking Paul Waugh of the London Evening Standard was blogging about a rumours of a potential resignation by disgruntled cabinet minister, Theresa Jowell MP, yesterday evening. The trade union, Unite, called on Mr. Brown's challengers to drop their 'divisive and damaging' call for a ballot. Geraldine Smith MP, slammed the letter as a 'cowards charter' and the plotters as 'spineless'.
"I think it's a cowards charter and I think they are out of touch with a lot of Labour MP... What angers me is that the people involved are so spineless."
Ms Smith claimed there were few Labour MPs involved in the plan.
"They were huddled together [last night] in a little corner and I'd say there are no more than 10 to 20 people involved in this."
This was quickly followed by Conservative Party Chairman Eric Pickles Calling for a General Election declaring
"We can't go on like this."
At 13:51 Sky News reported that Gordon Brown might be turning to unlikely sources for help amid the crisis. Sky's Glen Oglaza tweets that Henry Winkler (a.k.a. The Fonz from Happy Days) just entered Downing Street.
David Blunkett, another former Labour Home Secretary is reported as saying:
"It is not possible according to our party's rules, it is not wanted by the PLP and, what is more, it is not needed."
Two hours into the crisis beginning Andy Burnham MP is the fist Labour Minister to decry the Hoon/Hewett campaign. Minuted later Mrs. Hewitt appears on Sky News saying:
"There is division on this issue, it is weakening us.
"We've had months punctuated by public calls for the prime minister to go, by resignations, by speculation, by private worries. I've had people in my constituency who strongly support the prime minister by want the issue resolved."
Barry Sheerman emerged at a quarter past two and tells the BBC that Gordon Brown cannot call for loyalty from Labour MPs after failing to show loyalty to Tony Blair:
"My loyalty is to my principles, my moral principles, my political principles, to my country and then to my party and I don't need anyone who undermined the previous Prime Minister and who was utterly disloyal telling me that I am disloyal,"
He also rejected claims that a secret ballot of MPs was against Labour party rules, insisting it was necessary to give backbenchers a say on the matter
."I understand there is no barrier for us to have a secret ballot otherwise why have the Parliamentary Labour Party? It's not only the place where the Prime Minister and cabinet ministers perform on a Monday night and the backbenchers have no voice at all.
"That is what caused frustration over this last period that the Parliamentary Labour Party has been manipulated by Gordon Brown and by the whips to stop us having an open discussion and having a vote."
Margaret Beckett weighs in with:
"I take the view that it’s a complete diversion, a waste of time, a big mistake, and should be ignored."
Asked what she would say to the Prime Minister if she were to speak to him she says:
"I would probably tell him fairly robustly to tell them where to go."
As the three hour mark of this crisis reared it's head John Mann, Labour MP for Bassetlaw bemoaned the call for a secret ballot on Gordon Brown’s leadership as 'self indulgence by two pompous idiots'. He said that Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt were 'serial plotters' adding 'these two have got previous, they attempted to backstab Blair, now they’re trying to backstab Brown'.
He claimed that Geoff Hoon was acting out of 'sour grapes' having not got a job in Europe and added:
"I’d like to take him into a back room and sort it out with him, because that is what he needs."
He went on to accuse Patricia Hewitt of 'raking in the money' from the private sector. He said she’s
"been raking in money from the private sector using her contact book, and that’s totally unacceptable."
At a quarter past three Nick Robinson reads a text message from Lord Mandelson:
"This is a complete overreaction, these people are not members of the government, no-one is resigning from the government."
Shortly thereafter Transport Minister, Sadiq Khan MP backs Gordon Brown's leadership.
Three and a half hours into the crisis senior cabinet minister, Ed Balls MP, Secretary of State for Children, Schools and Families, dismissed the call for a secret ballot as a 'damp squib' and insists the cabinet is backing Gordon Brown.
"The government, the cabinet, the Labour party is fully behind Gordon Brown. He's the best leader to take us into the general election, he's also the best person to take the country through the global downturn."
Former minister Tony McNulty MP offers his take on both the weather and the challenge to Gordon Brown's leadership, claiming the plot
"will be as fleeting as the melting snow outside"
He should probably see the snow which has begun to accumulate by a magnitude.
A quarter to five and Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, Harriet Harman MP, finally speaks: "
I was dismayed to hear in the early hours of this morning that once again there was a fire blazing in Camberwell and that residents were being evacuated from their homes. I have, once again, conveyed my thanks to the local fire brigade and also the police, council officers and volunteers who worked together to help the residents who had to be rushed out of their homes. Thankfully there were no injuries but this is the third serious fire in Camberwell within the last year and I am greatly concerned about it…."
So nothing about the Leadership of the Labour Party. PoliticalBetting.com certainly think so and have promoted Ms Harman to the favourite position to launch a leadership bid.
As hour five began to dawned Sky News devlivered a statement from Chncellor, Alistair Darling MP, saying he will not be deflected from the business of government by calls for a leadership ballot.
"As far as I'm concerned we should be concentrating on the business of government and getting though the recession."
Minutes later, Alan Johnson, incumbent Labour Home Secretary, added his support to the Prime Minister saying:
"Gordon Brown is the best man to lead the Labour party. I respect Patricia and Geoff a great deal but I do not support their proposals."
As the working day came to close Cabinent Minsiter, Ed Miliband MP, warned Labour MPs against 'self indulgent navel gazing' and said he is sure his brother David would join him in backing the Prime Minister. This was followed by Justice Secretary, Jack Straw MP, joining the ranks of cabinet ministers defending Gordon Brown, insisting there is 'no issue' over Mr. Brown's leadership saying:
"I don't think there is an issue about the direction in which Gordon Brown and the cabinet and the government as a whole are seeking to lead the country."
Shortly before seven o'clock Foreign Secretary, David Miliband MP, said:
"I am working closely with the prime minister on foreign policy issues and support the re-election campaign for a Labour government that he is leading."
Shortly before ten o'clock Labour MP Eric Joyce (Falkirk) wrote on his blog that:
"[T]oday’s most newsworthy detail was that two cabinet ministers created a flap in the pigeon coup, but turned out not to be foxes but chickens."
And finally, on BBC 1's News At Ten, Nick Robinson reported that six cabinet members were prepared to support a revolt against Gordon Brown's leadership 'under the right circumstancs'. Nick Robinson emphasised that he had not spoken to those he later named as Harriet Harman MP, David Miliband MP, Douglas Alexander MP, Bob Ainsworth MP, Jack Straw and Jim Murphy. David Jones MP, Conservative (Clwyd West), notes that
"Such an announcement on prime time TV will only increase the tensions already seething within the cabinet and make the Prime Minister look even weaker."
And asks, rightly:
"Has Gordon the bottle to enact his own Night of Long Knives? Somehow I doubt it."
Whether the SnowStorm Plot melts with the snow, or whether new developments, possibly tomorrow, keep the hopes, and the story, alive for those who would rather have a new leader for Labour, only time will tell.
Conservatives could spend twice or even three times as much as Labour. The Times had the story of the day with speculation that the Conservatives might be able to spend two to three times as much as Labour on the election campaign. Expect Labour to accuse the Conservatives of 'buying' the electorate.
There was renewed speculation about Gordon Brown's position as Labour leader. There is probably a majority of Labour MPs who accept that Brown is a loser but no majority behind an alternative candidate. We are now too close to an election unless one Labour figure can have a Michael Howard-style coronation as leader. Otherwise the electorate will look at a leadership contest with disdain, even disgust.
Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat's Leader refused to be drawn on coalition thinking. In his most important intervention of the campaign so far the Liberal Democrat leader wrote that there would be
"no backroom deals or under-the-counter “understandings” with either of the other two parties."
A key message for the Conservatives in Lib-Dem/Con marginals is that a vote for Clegg might keep Labour in by the back door.
Greg Clark and Nick Herbert were the Conservatives stars of the day. Nick Herbert got good coverage this morning for his pledge to create a supermarket ombudsman to prevent large retailers from abusing their market position and Greg Clark has got big coverage all afternoon for riding the cold weather stories with a dire warning about dangerously low gas reserves.
The Conservative poster campaign, launched on Monday, continues to get lots of attention. The Daily Mail says it is costing half a million pounds. The Times was reporting that Mrs. Cameron approved the photo. The Times' Sam Coates explored whether the image of the Conservative Party's leader was airbrushed.
Alistair Darling refused to rule out increasing VAT to 20%. It had been reported that Labour planned to frighten voters with allegations of secret Tory plans for a VAT hike. That will be impossible if they can't rule it out themselves.
China which, has warned Britain that it must stop its fierce condemnation of its judicial process, executed Akmal Shaikh for drug smuggling. The execution has provoked strong criticism from Prime Minister Gordon Brown MP who said in a statement that he was 'appalled'.
Shaikh was executed by lethal injection at 10.30am local time on Tuesday, 29th December 2009 (2:30am GMT) at the Xishan Detention Centre in Urumqi, in the far west of China. Government ministers repeatedly called on China to show clemency because Shaikh was believed to suffer from severe bipolar disorder.
In Lincoln yesterday I was surprised that the matter came up in conversation, and more surprised at the disconnect between the position of the British Government and the public. All, universally supported China's right to try, convict and punish offenders in their own way, without interference. A source who attended a prayer session at the cathedral in the city has reported that two Roman Catholic nuns also thought what China has done was right - obviously in spite of the Church's teaching on the sanctity of life.
On Tuesday, a spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry expressed China’s anger at the British Government’s response to the death sentence. spokeswoman Jiang Yu said:
"Nobody has the right to speak ill of China’s judicial sovereignty.
"We express strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition over the groundless British accusations. We hope that the British side can view this matter rationally and not create new obstacles in bilateral relations."
Since Shaikh was arrested at Urumqi airport with four kilos of heroin in September 2007, China denied repeated requests for him to be examined by a doctor. His family insist he was tricked into carrying the drugs by a criminal gang.
China has a zero tolerance policy towards drug smugglers, whether Chinese or foreign. It is also extremely sensitive towards any attempts to interfere in what it regards as its internal affairs.
A little while ago I signed a petition on the Number 10 website calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
The petition simply read:
"We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to resign."
The petition, instigated by Kalvis Jansons, closed on Thursday, 22nd October 2009. The petition received 72,234 signatures.
The government's response is:
"The Prime Minister is completely focussed on restoring the economy, getting people back to work and improving standards in public services. As the Prime Minister has consistently said, he is determined to build a stronger, fairer, better Britain for all."
Which in my view doesn't seem to be an answer to the petition. They could have included the line 'The Prime Minister is determined to continue to lead the government...' and then continue with the rest of the original response.
In an email to conservatives and supporters David Cameron has today said:
"This week the failures of this Labour Government were exposed across three major fronts: society, the military, and the economy.
"First, society. New figures have shown that many poor families are actually better off on benefits than in work. What kind of signal does this send about what society expects of people? "Don't strive for independence, don't try to provide for your family, don't try and do the responsible thing". It's a crazy situation to be in, so on Tuesday I announced a new policy initiative to look into the best way of tackling it.
"Second, the military. As you might remember from my email two weeks ago we've been pushing hard against deep cuts in training for army reservists. Thankfully, we've now succeeded in getting these cuts stopped. On Wednesday I asked the Prime Minister to tell us what on earth he was thinking of when he proposed to cut this training when the country is at war. As ever, I didn't get an answer.
"Third, the economy. Whilst Britain now finds itself in the longest and deepest recession since records began, we learned on Thursday that the US has now joined all the other major economies in climbing out of recession and into recovery.
"Gordon Brown's claims that we were somehow the "best placed" country to weather the recession have been completely blown out of the water by the fact we were one of the first into recession, and are now the last out. Our economy desperately needs an injection of credit and confidence - and we're only going to get that with fresh economic leadership."
Asked recently how they felt about Prime Minister Gordon Brown, nearly half of those surveyed by Populus for a poll in The Times said that 'anyone' in the Labour Party would do a better job as party leader.
In the last two weeks, the prime minister has been compelled to publicly deny that he takes anti-depressants, that he is on the verge of going blind and that U.S. President Barrack Obama is deliberately avoiding him.
“Gordon Brown looks like a failing businessperson on way out — a ‘dead man walking,’”
aid John F. Welch Jr., the former chief executive of General Electric, which he felt inspired to observe to more than 880,000 followers on Twitter.
This was the backdrop as Mr. Brown strode on to the stage in Brighton on Tuesday to deliver what many are assuming will be his last speech at a Labour Party conference as Prime Minister. According to a flurry of recent polls, the Labour Party has virtually no chance of winning.
Early polls can be poor predictors of future intentions, of course. It is not over until the last vote is in the ballot box. It is possible that some extraneous event, some hideous international disaster, could occur that suddenly helps the government.
A lot was riding on Mr. Brown’s speech. Could he revitalize a party that began its annual conference over the weekend in a mood of funereal fatalism? Could he build on the argument that the young and untested Conservative leader, David Cameron, is a 'flibbertigibbet,' as the First Secretary of State, Lord Mandelson, called him? Could he demonstrate after a spell of disastrous news coverage that he was neither a 'grumpy old man,' as a disillusioned Alan Simpson MP put it, nor a jockey astride a 'spavined old cart horse,' in the words of the columnist Andrew Gimson?
“Even the Sermon on the Mount would be unlikely to kick-start the party’s heart, and Mr. Brown is no Messiah of communications,”
Mary Riddell wrote in The Daily Telegraph.
In his speech, and after it, Mr. Brown had presented himself as unperturbed by all the bad weather swirling around him, declaring without flinching that he was well suited to the job of clawing the party back to re-electability. He would
“not give up, but fight to win for Britain,”
“Now is not the time to give in, but to reach inside ourselves for the strength of our convictions.”
Mr. Brown had decided to negotiate a delicate set of circumstances. He had to figure out how to argue that his party was ready to make a comeback, when it is in fact already in power. He also had to seem sincere when promising to fix things that the Labour government has not yet fixed in 12 years in power. He had to convince listeners that Labour had the tools to repair the economy when, critics say, Labour policies helped contribute to the severity of the problems in the first place.
The Prime Minister fashioned a clever way of doing so, saying that the financial crisis had transformed the world, and that Labour was best able to adapt to the new realities. People should vote
“not for a fourth-term Labour government... but for the first Labour government of this new age.”
Even when the speech was over, the newspaper broadsides did not cease. Some, indeed, intensified.
On Wednesday the influential The Sun, part of Rupert Murdoch’s media empire, issued an abrupt reversal of the support it always claimed had helped Labour to win power in 1997. In that election, the Sun switched its backing from the Conservatives to Labour. On Wednesday, it seesawed back again — a blow to Mr. Brown and a huge bonus for Mr. Cameron.
“After 12 long years in power, this government has lost its way. Now it’s lost the Sun’s support too,” the newspaper said on its front page along with a photograph of Mr. Brown and the headline, “Labour’s Lost It.”
People in the conference hall said they found Mr. Brown relaxed and personable, qualities that have not been his strong points in the past. They said they were pleased by a stream of initiatives he announced, including plans to ensure quicker diagnoses for patients suspected of having cancer, and plans finally to eject the remaining hereditary peers from the House of Lords.
Barrie Taylor, a local government official from London, said:
“It was all right,”
“He gets down on the ground to talk about the issues he feels strongly about.”
Mr. Taylor said he believed that despite polls that showed Labour in the range of 15 percentage points behind the Conservatives, the country would come to its senses when faced with the actual election.
Party conferences are self-selecting, packed with cocooned supporters basking in the safe glow of the like-minded. But even upbeat conference attendees here admitted that Labour faced a difficult time. They said, however, that although things seemed dire now, they did not seem nearly as dire for the party as they did in the early 1980s, when Margaret Thatcher was in power and Labour was riven by internal squabbles.
“People recognize that it can’t get much worse at the moment in terms of the polls, but the threat of having a Conservative government is just so bad that people are fired up,”
said Will Straw, the son of Justice Secretary, Jack Straw.
Part of Labour’s problem is simply voter fatigue. Britons tend to grow weary of governments and turn on them. Sensing blood, the ravening British news media can be as vicious as the gang of boys in 'Lord of the Flies'.
Public life here has the risk of turning into a theatre of cruelty. If the media decides it wants to damage and hold you permanently to account in a hard and difficult way, there’s very little you can do about it. With Brown, they sort of decided collectively that he is a no-hoper.
In less than eight month time we will know what direction British Politics is going to take. But Gordon Brown's performance though a credible effort did not stop delegates knitting through his speech. The fight he called for may be a lonely one.
It was astonishing to hear that the brains behind the Labour Conference had chosen to introduce Gordon Brown with the song 'Sit Down' by James. If they'd actually read the lyrics, they might have realized what a massive mistake this was:
Now I’m relieved to hear That you’ve been to some far out places It’s hard to carry on When you feel all alone Now I’ve swung back down again It’s worse than it was before If I hadn’t seen such riches I could live with being poor
If that last couplet isn't all about the financial crisis, I don't know what is. And then there are the lines that seem to sum up the Cabinet, sitting alongside Gordon Brown:
Those who feel the breath of sadness Sit down next to me Those who find they’re touched by madness Sit down next to me Those who find themselves ridiculous Sit down next to me In love, in fear, in hate, in tears In love, in fear, in hate, in tears In love, in fear, in hate, in tears In love, in fear, in hate.
The finale was to play Gordon Brown off the stage with M People's 'Moving On Up'. I mean, seriously?
You've done me wrong, your time is up. You took a sip (just a sip) from the devils cup. You broke my heart, there's no way back. Move right outta here baby. Go on pack your bags. Just who do you think you are? Stop acting like some kinda star. Just who do you think you are? Take it like a man baby if that's what you are.
Today the Prime Minister Gordon Brown is going to address the Trades’ Union Congress in Liverpool. If reports that are leaking out are to be believed he is going to start talking about cuts to public services.
Shadow Chancellor, George Osbourne has been on Sky News this morning and said: “Let's remember for months after months I've come into this studio and had a good vigorous debate about why we need to cut spending.
“We have made the argument that the national debt is a huge problem, and this is the huge issue in the recovery - how do we get the debt under control and protect our front line services so we can get the economy growing again.
“It's been a hard fought battle but I think today after months of fighting Gordon Brown's about to give in.”
Labour are desperate to paint a Cameron-led Conservative government as a group who will slash and burn their way through Whitehall. Yesterday Lord Mandelson began to soften the ground for the Prime Minister’s Policy u-turn and lay out the new electoral battleground that Labour must believe they can win on. In an address yesterday to leading left-wing think tank Progress Mandelson said: “The Tories and their friends are yearning for people to think that because there is a need for public spending constraint in the future we face an era of deep, savage, indiscriminate across-the-board spending cuts whoever is in power. The Tories contemplate this with thinly disguised zeal because as a matter of principle they want to create a ‘small state’. We, in contrast, will continue to work hard to create the economic conditions that will enable us to maintain frontline service delivery.”
What a load of rubbish. I spoke to the Rt. Hon. Ken Clarke, Shadow Secretary of State for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform on Saturday afternoon and he affirmed that the Conservative Party would be surgical in their approach of bringing the public purse back under control, that the pledge to increase spending on the NHS, in real terms, by point two percent remained firm and necessary with an aging population. We discussed a number of other issues and I was very impressed at his grasp of what needs to happen, his understanding of the dangers presented by a ‘double-whammy’ of spending cuts from the Treasury and reversal of quantitative easing (printing money) by the Bank of England.
In the final analysis I trust the Conservative who delivered a tremendous economic legacy squandered by Labour in the last twelve years.
I have to admit, I never thought that this close to the European and County Council elections Gordon Brown's position would look so fragile.
Five Ministers went public yesterday, including Jacqui Smith - Home Secretary, that they would be resigning at the next reshuffle. The Guardian have decided to publish a editorial this morning blasting Gordon Brown, then Hazel Blears resigned, giving no support to Gordon Brown's premiership. At PMQs Alistair Darling didn't get any meaningful support from the Prime Minister. LabourList reported that two Ministers may resign this afternoon. Rumors abound that John Reid has been sounded out for the position of Home Secretary and apparently a coup is underway to get the 70 Labour MPs to break cover and call for a Leadership Contest.
Tomorrow will be really important not just for who we elect, but for the impact it will have on Gordon Brown's Premiership.
I suspect the odd on Gordon Brown still being Prime Minister by the end of the year have narrowed shortly.
Updates will be live as soon I can put them up from the Count at Gainsborough. I also hope to feed into Ian Dale's coverage on Friday.
Don't forget to vote. Polls open 7am and close 10pm.
Guido Fawkes is reporting that following some enquires he now has positive confirmation that the game is a foot for the Labour Leadership Contest to begin anew.
Jack Straw claimed yesterday that Gordon Brown was secure in his job and would not be ousted may now be showing signs of strain as it appears that Gordon Brown's leadership is very much on the agenda.
Guido says that:
"If UKIP were to beat Labour, Nigel Farage is right, Brown would have to go. No amount of spin that 'all mainstream politics is disgraced' would save Gordon, that would only make sense if the Tories were beaten by UKIP as well. Just as the end of David Owen’s SDP was signaled by them losing to the Monster Raving Loony Party, UKIP beating Gordon would confirm his demise."
The scenario goes like this:
It's the morning after the polls of Thursday 4th June 2009 Labour’s local elections percentage poll drops below the previous low-point.
The Liberal Democrats or United Kingdom Independence Party beat Labour on the percentage share of the vote in the European Parliamentary Elections.
The Sunday press take a beligerant view of Brown with Labour MPs clamoring openly for him to stand down.
If Sarah Brown can’t or won’t save him from humiliating himself that weekend, he will on the Monday 8th June 8 2009 have to face the Parliamentary Labour Party without spin doctor McBride and unable any longer to put the press frighteners on critics as much as in the past.
Then a recent former cabinet member making will make a 'Geoffrey Howe' speech. Probably not Messrs. Clarke or Byers, it will have to be someone who has not previously ventured abouve the parapet, someone who has served in Brown’s cabinet, someone like Peter Hain or Ruth Kelly. 'For the good of the party and the good of the nation' he will be implored to go. If the mood of the room goes against him, he will fall shortly after, much as the Speaker went.
Guido’s source cautions that we have been here before and Brown has a knack of hanging on by his fingernails. Guido however does report that Campaign Teams are however being assembled in readiness with the weekend of 12th/13th June 2009 pencilled in for them to break cover.
Miliband's Special Advisor Sarah Schaefer has sounded out a team ready to go within weeks and Alan Johnson’s unsuccessful deputy leadership campaign team is also clearing the decks.
