Conservatives Will Win Votes But Lose Seats in City Contest

Analysis of the local election voting patterns over recent years indicate that the Conservatives are likely to secure the most votes at the 2012 Local Elections to Lincoln City Council. However, the analysis also points to Labour improving their grip on the authority.

In a tough electoral situation for Lincoln's Conservatives they find themselves defending seven seats in a contest of eleven. The Lincoln Labour Party meanwhile are defending a mere three seats and the Liberal Democrats there lone representative.

The above chart demonstrates the poll of the various parties that have contested elections within the Lincoln City Council area over the past five years (the 2009 figure represents elections to Lincolnshire County Council within the city). In 2007 the whole council was up for election on new ward boundaries. The Conservatives gained six seats, with a poll  of 41% just slightly above the national average of 40% for the Conservatives, and took control from the Labour Party after twenty-six years.

Through the Eurovision Looking Glass: Would AV make a difference?

The international Eurovision Song Contest final took place this weekend in Dusseldorf, Germany and whilst for fans (125million were expected to tune in) it was a triumphant display of unity and talent bringing together divergent cultures through the medium of music. For others the contest will have passed by virtually unnoticed.



Azerbaijan's 'Running Scared', performed by Ell and Nicki, chalked up two hundred and twenty-one points to claim victory in the contest.

Let us look at the current system used. The forty-three participating countries each get to score the twenty five entries that have successfully made it through to the final. During the performance, viewers (known as "Televoters") in all participating countries can vote by making a telephone call for their favorite song or songs.  In order of preference the televoters choices are awarded twelve points to the most popular entry, ten points to the second most popular, then eight, seven, six, five, four, three, two and one points.

Professional juries in all participant countries vote as well. Just like the televoters, each jury in each country then gave twelve points to the most popular entry, ten points to the second most popular, then eight, seven, six, five, four, three, two and one points.

The televoting results and the jury results are then merged per country with each result counting for half the final preference listing and a spokesperson in country reads out the merged results, giving twelve points to the most popular entry, ten points to the second most popular, then eight, seven, six, five, four, three, two and one points.

Lincolnshire County Council Result

Well my prediction was that we would see Conservatives 64 (Up 19), Labour 13 (Down 13), Liberal Democrats 4 (Down 5), Lincolnshire Independents 1 (Up 1), Boston Bypass Party 1 (Up 1), Independents 0 (Down 3)

It is 5am. Sixty-Six seats have declared and currently we stand at: Conservatives 50 (Up 17), Labour 3 (Down 16), Liberal Democrats 5 (Down 3), Lincolnshire Independents 1 (Up 1), Boston Bypass Party 1 (Up 1), Independents 2 (n/c)... so at this early stage very much in line with my prediction.

Lincolnshire County Council Election Prediction

It is five days before polling day. And whilst every politician will tell you that the only poll that matters is the one on Thursday 4th June - and they are right to do so - here is my prediction of the seats which are most vunerable and could change on the night.

Boston Fishtoft
Boston Northwest
Mablethorpe
Skegness South
Lincoln Birchwood
Lincoln Bracebridge
Lincoln East
Lincoln Hartsholme
Lincoln Moorland
Branston & Navenby
Deeping St. James
Grantham Barrowby
Grantham East
Grantham South
Bardney & Cherry Willingham
Gainsborough Rural South
Market Rasen Wolds
Nettleham & Saxilby
Welton Rural

County Council Election Prediction

12/05/2009
On Monday 11th May 2009 the Returning Officers published the list of persons nominated to stand as Candidates for Election to Lincolnshire County Council on Thursday June 4th.

After much number-crunching Giles McNeill is pleased to announce a first prediction, based upon YouGov's poll for 'The Times' conducted on 8th/9th May 2009 using a moderated uniform swing.

Conservatives 64 (Up 19)
Labour 13 (Down 13)
Liberal Democrats 4 (Down 5)
Lincolnshire Independents 1 (Up 1)
Boston Bypass Party 1 (Up 1)
Independents 0 (Down 3)