Lincoln Council Elections 2014: UKIP Exceed Expectations But Fail To Win Any Seats

The overall result of Lincoln's City Council's 2014 local elections have been a reassuringly predictable affair. However the detail shows that the UK Independence Party performed better than expected, whilst Labour and the Conservatives both underperformed. 

There were only one set of local elections taking place in Lincolnshire yesterday. Lincoln City Council is the only authority in the county that still retains the system of electing it's members by 'thirds' - the process where each year one third of the seats are elected and in the fourth year elections take place for Lincolnshire County Council.

Click on the table above to enlarge.

The table above shows the predicted result for each party, in grey, based on a standard uniform swing calculation generated using data from ukpollingrport.co.uk on 5th May 2014. The second column for each party shows the actual result and the third column the difference between the two.

Lincoln is a key battleground in the coming General Election between Conservative incumbent Karl McCartney MP and Labour's Lucy Rigby who have been slogging it out for over two years now and have a year ahead of them of an increasingly bitter rivalry.

The net effect of the elections to Lincoln City Council was a loss of two seats by the Conservatives to Labour in the Birchwood and Minster wards. This means that the council now consists of 27 Labour members and 6 Conservatives.

The UK Independence Party failed to make any gains, despite polling a respectable 23.33%. This will be a substantive disappointment for them for two reasons; firstly that with such a healthy share of the vote they were not rewarded with any representation; and secondly that their share of the vote is down slightly on the local elections in Lincoln last year to Lincolnshire County Council.

Labour, despite success in securing new members on the council, have nothing to be happy about in terms of their share of the vote. Their share of the vote is down 2.13 percentage points on last year's county elections in the city and 12.62 percentage points on the comparable local elections of 2012. Since the 2010 local elections this would mean that Labour has only improved their share of the vote in the city by 4.68 percentage points. Given that Karl McCartney MP's majority is 2.32%. It is now possible to say, with some certainty that either could win the seat in 2015. However, on the basis that governing parties usually recover as an election approaches this poor performance by Labour is likely to prove insufficient to ensure Ms Rigby's election. Mr. McCartney will in all likelihood be Lincoln's Member of Parliament for at least the next six years.

It was surely a disappointing night for the Conservatives. Despite campaigning hard they struggled to convert votes into seats. Their share of the vote was up three quarters of a percentage point compared with the previous county elections in 2013. The loss of Cllr. Yvonne Bodger in Minster Ward means that she will not become Mayor of Lincoln for the coming civic year; depriving Lincoln's Conservatives of a significant platform in the run-up to the general election.

The Liberal Democrats performed much better than the prediction; however, this is more likely due to the fact that they are now only getting votes from their most ardent supporters. Nevertheless their share of the vote was down two thirds of a percentage point when compared with last year's county elections, and down 2.20 percentage points compared with the local elections of 2012.

Of the other parties and independent candidates contesting these elections, the Trades Unionists Socialist Against Cuts underperformed and continued to slip in terms of their share of the vote which was down 0.60 percentage point from their hight of 2.42% in 2012. The Greens performed considerably better than expected having fielded candidates for the first time in the city since 2011. The two independent candidates underperformed against the prediction.

Liberal Democrats and Independent Win By-Election Contests

In a close fought contest, for the Lincolnshire County Council seat of the Scotter Rural Division, Liberal Democrat, Lesley Rollings has succeeded in her third attempt to win the seat. The Conservatives' candidate, Richard Butroid, came in second, followed by candidates from UK Independence Party, Nick Smith, and the Lincolnshire Independents party, Chris Darcel.

Above: (Left to Right) Front row: John Gilliam, Matt Boles, Harriett Fowler, Cllr. Trevor Young, Barry Coward (unsuccessful district candidate), Cllr. Lesley Rollings and Cllr. Reg Shore (WLDC Liberal Democrat Leader),
Rear row: Behind Cllr. Rollings is Cllr. David Dobbie and his son, Rhys, Keith Panter, Paul Key, Harry Warriner, Heather Shore, Adi O'Neil, John Rollings, Cllr. Pat O'Connor.

In the Scotter Ward of West Lindsey District Council election Christopher Day, who ran with out descriptor on the ballot paper, secured victory, followed by John Cox, Conservative, Barry Coward, Liberal Democrat and Dr. Howard Thompson for the UK Independence Party.

Speaking at the Count, Conservative Party Agent, Giles McNeill said:

"I think these two results are very interesting in two ways; firstly, that whilst the Lib Dem candidate improved their share of the vote in the county contest, it actually went down in the district contest. The election of the Scotter Parish Council Chairman, Cllr. Chris Day and Cllr. Mrs. Lesley Rollings suggests that local residents want local candidates. This is something I am sure will be taken on by the [Conservative] party locally. 

"Secondly, despite the widespread misconception that the UK Independence Party is continuing to find supporters, this is not supported by the evidence of these two elections. In May, earlier this year, UKIP came second in the county contest. Today they are in third place and have lost seven percentage points since May."

Mark Valadares, on the Liberal Democrat Voice blog, subsequently observed:

"Lincolnshire wasn’t kind to Liberal Democrats in the 2013 County elections, with our vote share dropping by three-quarters and two of our five seats lost, so a December by-election in Scotter Rural wouldn’t have seemed to be promising much other than more pain, especially with UKIP in second place in May, but in a fine rebound, the seat was gained from the Conservatives on a 22% swing. 

"Admittedly, the West Lindsey District ward of Scotter didn’t see matching success, but our vote, small though it was (14.3%) held up pretty well."

Full results for the County Council contest are available here and here for the District Council contest.

By-Elections Expected Following Untimely Death of Councillor

Two By-Elections are expected to be called to fill a vacancy in the Scotter Rural Division of Lincolnshire County Council and the  Scotter Ward of West Lindsey District Council following the untimely death of Cllr. Chris Underwood-Frost, Conservative (Scotter Rural Division, Scotter Ward), whose battle with cancer is now concluded.

Cllr. Underwood-Frost was first elected to West Lindsey District Council in 1999 and was subsequently re-elected in 2003, 2007 and 2011. At the 2007 local elections he was re-elected to his seat when, tied with the Liberal Democrat candidate, both having received 781 votes, the peculiarities of the electoral system came into play and Cllr. Underwood-Frost secured re-election by virtue of a coin-toss.

In 2001 he was successful during the local elections to Lincolnshire County Council in gaining the seat for the Scotter Rural Division, securing re-election in 2005, 2009 and, most recently, in 2013.

Since the boundary changes and all-out elections of 1999 to West Lindsey District Council both the ward and the division have been consistently won by the Conservatives over the last decade, both of seats came under pressure from the Liberal Democrats around the middle of the last decade. The Conservative majority was only 131 votes in the Scotter Ward in 2004 before being determined by a coin toss at the following district election. Only 170 votes in the Scotter Rural Division in 2005, after coming so close, the Liberal Democrat challenge has since faded away; the second place spot at the most recent district election in the Scotter Ward, in 2011, was taken by an Independent, while the UK Independence Party were second here in the recent County Council election.

The defending Conservative candidate for the County Division is Sturton-by-Stow resident Richard Butroid, who is a Health and Safety Specialist and who has represented Lincolnshire at clay pigeon shooting. District Councillors Lesley Rollings, Liberal Democrat (Thonock Ward), from Pilham, will make her third attempt to secure the County Council seat; whilst Cllr. Chris Darcel, Independent (Fiskerton Ward), will make a first outing for the Lincolnshire Independents into this area. Finally the UK Independence Party's Prospective Parliamentary Candidate for Lincoln, Nick Smith, will hope to replicate, and improve upon the party successful second place earlier in the year.

Above: (Left to Right) Sir Edward Leigh with Conservative
Candidates Richard Butroid and John Cox on Scotter Green

In the Scotter Ward by-election John Cox, also from Sturton-by-Stow, will defend for the Conservatives. His opposition will come from the Chairman of Scotter Parish Council, Chris Day, Independent; Barry Coward, from Gainsborough, and local party Chairman of the Liberal Democrats; and the UK Independence Party's Dr. Howard Thompson, from Claxby near Market Rasen.

The Conservatives will have hopes of retaining both seats, although supplying candidates who live some distance from the area they will eventually represent may present an additional hurdle. The Liberal Democrats, locally, have always coveted this seat and will through everything they have at it, in an attempt to show that their electoral demise, since joining the coalition government in 2010 has been greatly exaggerated. Labour have failed to field even a county council candidate, which they have done in 2009 and May 2013, suggesting that the party in the constituency is in very poor shape. The UK Independence Party has been rife with internal disagreements since their success in electing a number of councillors to the county council earlier in the year; to the extent that their group has split in to two groups, whether this has impacted on the party's brand remains to be seen. The Lincolnshire Independents have no hope of winning here. If they get 200 votes they will be having a good night. Expect them to come in fourth place.

Labour Win in Bracebridge By-Election

Labour had an impressive night in the by-election for the Bracebridge Ward seat, vacated by former Council Leader Darren Grice, coming top of the poll to secure an extra seat on Lincoln City Council and getting their poll up, despite recent slippage in national opinion polls.

Above: Bracebridge Ward By-Election Result
22nd August 2013

If Ed Miliband, the Labour Party Leader, is having a 'Summer of Discontent' then there was no sign of it in Lincoln last night as votes were counted and victory declared for Lincoln's newest City Councillor Mrs. Katie Vause, Labour (Bracebridge Ward).

Cllr. Mrs. Vause, a Geography Teacher, was elected as Labour's 25th man on to the 33 member authority. The Labour advance continues in Lincoln, in an area hitherto that has not been strong for them in recent years. It will be taken as a signal by Lincoln Labour that they are doing the right things to unseat incumbent Conservative, Karl McCartney MP, in the 2015 General Election.

The night saw Conservative trooper Mr. David Denman pipped to the post by a narrow margin of less than 100 votes. Perhaps as a kicking from the electorate for the way in which Darren Grice was forced out of office, or perhaps for other reasons, the Conservative poll was down nearly four percentage point, with voters switching to Labour. With a general election now only 21 months away this was not the result that the party would have been wanting.

Above: Election results in the Bracebridge
Ward & Division 2007 - 2013

The Liberal Democrats' Mr. Ross Pepper improved the party's poll standing back to above the 5% mark - just - as was suggested by the blog (here) earlier in the year. However, at only 5.03%, it is hardly the improvement that the party needs to be considered in the running in Lincoln's politics. Nevertheless, it will be argued by them that this shows that the party is healing after bruising polls following joining the Conservatives in the Coalition Government in 2010. Whilst not to the dizzy highs the party achieved in 2009 & 2010, nevertheless they are back to 2007 levels and this will restore their hope.

Mrs. Elane Warde for the UK Independence Party polled a respectable 23%. Demonstrating that if the UKIP bubble of May earlier this year is bursting, it is doing so at a snails pace. The local party will seize on this as evidence that the party is here to stay. Only time will tell.

Finally Ms Karen Williams for the Trades Union Socialists Against the Cuts coalition had a poor performance picking up only four more votes than nominees that got her on the ballot and polling less than a percent.

Full Slate of Candidates to Contest Bracebridge By-Election

On Thursday, 22nd August 2013 voters in Lincoln's Bracebridge Ward will have the opportunity to go to the polls for a by-election.

A vacancy was declared following the non-attendance of former Council Leader Darren Grice, who was removed from his post for his failure to attend meetings. Five individuals will contest the election.

David Denman

At the top of the ballot will be Mr. David Denman, the Conservative Party candidate, of Mallory Close, Lincoln. He is an Ecologist and formerly a Lincoln City Councillor, serving on the authority from 2008 - 2012, making him the most experienced choice for voters. Mr. Denman says:

"I want to work with local schools and residents to find lasting solutions to parking issues, particularly on Hykeham Road. Additionally, monitor planning applications for Bracebridge to ensure that they are in the best interests of residents and local businesses. I’ll work with all community leaders to improve Bracebridge with better facilities and services for local people, including protecting and enhancing local bus services for our community."

Ross Pepper

Second on the ballot is Mr. Ross Pepper, the Liberal Democrat candidate, of Roydon Grove, Lincoln. He is the youngest candidate on the ballot and has run, unsuccessfully on a number of occassions, most recently in the Lincolnshire County Council election in May 2013 for the Moorlands Division. The Liberal Democrats, who have never had particular strength in Lincoln, will want to improve their poll rating and see it back above 5%. Mr. Pepper says:

"I got into politics during my sixth form days at St Peter and St Paul’s. It was during the Iraq War and I found myself opposing the vast majority of staff and students by saying the invasion was illegal."

Katie Vause

Third on the ballot is Mrs. Katie Vause, the Labour Party candidate, of Hykeham Road, Lincoln. She is a teacher of Geography at the Lincoln Castle Academy and serves as one of 13 Directors of the Academy of Lincoln Trust, which operates the school. Mrs Vause says:

"I am petrified of balloons!

"The most important factor for me from being a local resident of the ward myself is that a councillor must be someone who is willing to listen and action casework even if this is on an individual basis — and this is exactly what I intend to do."

The contest pits the Conservatives against Labour in a straightforward two-way fight - both parties were close in the County Council contest in May, earlier in the year.

Elaine Warde

Fourth on the ballot is Mrs. Elane Warde,the UK Independence Party candidate, of Malham Drive, Lincoln. UKIP are starting in third place based on the County poll in May, a good distance behind the two main parties - but a position they have seized from the Liberal Democrats in recent years. Mrs. Warde says:

"There are many issues that need to be addressed, however I believe the most important issue at present is the proposal to close libraries. 

"I’ll support the people of the Bracebridge Ward in lobbying the County Council to rethink their actions.

Fifth on the ballot is Ms Karen Williams, the the Trades Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts candidate, of Robertson Road, North Hykeham. She is a member of Unison and  has run, unsuccessfully for the party a number of times, most recently in the Lincolnshire County Council election in May 2013 for the Moorlands Division. You can expect the Trade Unionist and Socialist Against the Cuts (who did not field a candidate here in May) will be scrapping about in the lower single digits. She says:

"I was brought up to believe in the greater good and have always been a socialist. Got into local and environmental politics five years ago."

Labour will hope to show they are making advances, although this is not a strong area for them - they took a city council seat in 2012 with a majority of seven votes. With the national opinion polls showing a slip in support for Labour and Conservatives regaining supporters from UKIP the Conservatives will hope their candidate is successful, and have impressive form in the area with six out of seven wins since 2007.

By Election Expected in Lincoln City's Bracebridge Ward

A By-Election is expected to be called to fill a vacancy in the Bracebridge Ward of Lincoln City Council following the removal of Cllr. Darren Grice, Independent (Bracebridge Ward), after a six month absence from meetings of the Council.

Mr. Andrew Taylor, Chief Executive of the City Council, explained:

"Where a member does not attend any meeting of the council for a period of six consecutive months from the date of their last attendance, then they cease to be a member of the council, unless they have received prior approval of absence.

"No such request has been received from councillor Grice. Councillor Grice’s last attendance at a meeting was Council on 8th January 2013. Accordingly, as there are no meetings scheduled which he could now attend, his term of office will cease on 8 July 2013.

"The Council must then declare the vacancy. Where the council declares the office to be vacant, the election to fill the vacancy must be held within 35 days of this date."

A timetable for the by-election is expected to be published shortly after Monday, 8th July 2013 and will mean a by-election will probably be held on Thursday, 8th August 2013.

In the last election, in the Lincoln Bracebridge Division of Lincolnshire County Council, which covers, broadly speaking, the same geographical area as the Bracebridge Ward of Lincoln City Council the result was:

Conservatives 36.11%, Labour 34.00%, Liberal Democrat 3.72%, UKIP 23.57% and Lincolnshire Independent 2.61%.

The Conservatives will hope their candidate is successful, and have impressive form in the area with six out of seven wins since 2007. Labour will hope to show they are making advances, although this is not a strong area for them - they took a city council seat in 2012 with a majority of seven votes. UKIP will be looking to improve their poll rating from May's local election and will seek to improve their position to second place, from third. The Liberal Democrats, who have never had particular strength in Lincoln, will want to improve their poll rating and see it back above 5%.

Above: Election results (% vote) of contests in the Bracebridge Ward and Lincoln Bracebridge Division 2007-2013

Traditionally this seat has not been contested by the Lincolnshire Independents, if they field a candidate they will probably have limited impact. The BNP have infrequently fielded candidates in this seat and they could again for a by-election, depending on the strength of their party locally following the party's route from the electoral battlefield in Britain.

Lincolnshire's UKIP Councillors Embroiled in Racism Row

The Sunday Mirror report that, despite a claim that UKIP have cracked down, the newspaper have investigated 'sickening rants' on social media.

Lincolnshire County Council's Leader of the Opposition, Cllr. Chris Pain, UKIP (Wainfleet and Burgh), who is the party's East Midlands regional Chairman, is named by the paper as the author of a commment that reads:

"Have you noticed that if you rearrange the letters in 'illegal immigrants', and add just a few more letters, it spells, 'Go home you free-loading, benefit-grabbing, resource-sucking, baby-making, non-English-speaking ********* and take those other hairy-faced, sandal wearing, bomb-making, camel-riding, goat-*******, raghead ******* with you."

Cllr. Pain claims his Facebook account had been hacked.

Another, Cllr. Ms Tiggs Keywood-Wainwright, UKIP (Boston North West), has complained that mosques being built in 'quintessentially English' Cambridge, asking:

"Is nowhere sacred for the Brits in Britain any more?

"Bottom line is we have too many muslims in this country!" 

Cllr. Ms Keywood-Wainwright has admitted that she 'probably' regrets some of her remarks. Claiming that she meant that in some areas there were too many Muslims, defending herself saying:

"My GPs are all Muslims and I have no problem with them at all.

"One of them is extremely nice and very, very good at her job."

At Lincolnshire County Council's Annual Meeting, held on Friday, 17th May 2013, All 16 UKIP Councillors refused to sign an anti-racism declaration, proposed by Group Leader, Cllr. Rob Parker, Labour (Lincoln West). Cllr. Pain said:

"I cannot support this document. It actually pushes forward the chance of multi-culturalism, one of the fundamental things that's wrong with our society.

"UKIP's stance is not racist. Our stance is on space and space alone."

Cllr. Mrs. Jackie Brockway, Conservative (Nettleham & Saxilby) said:

"I'm very concerned that there's a theme developing that seems to be attacking the vulnerable adn we need to be careful about that."

Conservatives Improve Poll in Nettleham & Saxilby Contest Whilst Liberal Democrats Drop to Third Place

Conservatives were celebrating in the Nettleham and Saxilby Division as Cllr. Mrs. Jackie Brockway, Conservative (Nettleham & Saxilby Division), was re-elected as the area's Lincolnshire County Councillor.


Above: Cllr. Mrs. J. Brockway

In 2001 the Liberal Democrat's successfully got their candidate, Ray Sellars, elected who secured 44% of the vote, he was successful in securing re-election in 2005 with 48% and in 2009 again with a 61% share of the vote. In September last year, at the by-election, following Cllr. Sellars untimely death, they dropped into second place with a 25% share of the vote. Last Thursday they dropped further to 21% and, in an additional humiliation, dropped to third place behind the U K Independence Party's candidate.

Meanwhile the Conservatives have surged from having 34% in 2005 and 2009 to 43% in last September's by-election. In the most recent election the Conservative candidate improved both her poll to 44%, and increased her majority.

The UK Independence Party had a good night locally, picking up 24% of the vote, mopping up votes from the Lincolnshire Independents and English Democrats who where not fielding candidates, but did do so last September when they recieved 8% and 1% respectively, the other gains by UKIP came at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.

Finally the Labour party held steady in the division with 11% of the vote, which is what they recieved back in September, last year. There vote was up from the 6% they recieved in 2009, but down on the two polls of 18% achieved in 2001 and 2005

Starting Pistol Fired in 2013 Race for County Hall

Nominations for the local elections taking place on Thursday, 2nd May 2013 for Lincolnshire County Council have drawn to a close.

But the quantity of nominations for each political party - or in some cases the lack thereof - can reveal a considerable amount about the state of the political parties in Lincolnshire.

As the various parties line up like race horses on the starting line, waiting for the staring pistol to be fired, it is clear some mounts have the stamina to stay the course and go on to victory whilst others will limp in to last place. In these elections, in this race, it is winner takes all and so whomever is first-past-the-post matters.

First off, the Conservatives. Having had a voluptious administration of 61 of a possible 77 councillors over the course of the past four year term, led by Martin Hill, the party is a powerful force in the way in which the county is governed. They fielded a full slate of 77 last time and have done so again. No signs of any weakness in this stallion. Whilst perhaps past its peak of four years ago, nevertheless odds are on for this favourite.

Secondly, the Lincolnshire Independents. The official opposition at the authority for the past four years after a disasterous set of election results for Labour allowed for a coalition of the willing (Lincolnshire Independents, other Independents and members elected for the Boston By Pass party (which later merged with the Lincolnshire Independents)) to cobble together the support to allow Marianne Overton to become Leader of the Opposition. Fielding 29 (38%) candidates, up for 16 (23%) last time around. Certainly not enough candidates to put Mrs. Overton within reach of the magic 39 seats needed to have a majority. Make no mistake this is a bona fide political party. However, with the inherant instability of not having a whip expect contradictions, surprises and chaos. A scratchy performer.

Next, the Labour party. They have increased their deployment from 63 (87%) last time to a full slate. The party, back in opposition at Westminster, has found popularity in the polls at this midway point in the parliament. No doubt regaining some disaffected supporters who left during their time in government. Riding high in the polls nationally may not translate to victory in Lincolnshire. Expect a good showing for the party restoring their numbers back into double figures and a return to the opposition benches at county hall.

The Liberal Democrats. Well. They fielded a slate of 64 (83%) last time. This time that has dwindled to just 37 (48%) of the available seats to contest, also short of the half way mark. They are in no danger of forming an administration. Known for their ability to win by-elections this will be a test of their ability to retain incumbents - a key issue for a party which has dropped since the 2010 General Election from poll ratings of above 20% to around 10% now. Seats which they have held in successive elections, such as those in Gainsborough, are likely to be vulnerable to a Labour advance. Expect a poor performance, unlikely to complete the race unscathed.

UKIP, or more fully the United Kingdom Independence Party, are - if you believe the spin - 'a new force in british politics', they are 'breaking the mould' and becoming 'the real opposition'. Or put another way they are what the Liberal Democrats used to be. A party of protest. Fielding an impressive 60 (77%) candidates, up form 10 (13%) in 2009, they hope to capitalise on their party's current momentum. In April last year they started being included in poll reports. Moving from low single digits in April last year to a more sturdy double digit figure of 10-12%; putting them toe-to-toe with the Liberal Democrats in many polls. Their party leader Nigel Farage MEP is expected to tour the county during next week. However, don't expect a tide of purple to swell around County Hall. Like the Lincolnshire Independents, many of their candidates will be new to politics and to campaigns. This has the potential to cause them difficulties during the campaign and create doubt in the minds of electors. Pundits are predicting an upset for some Conservatives, who might lose at the expense of voters backing UKIP. Fighting slightly against the tide this time as the last county contest was held at the same time as elections for the European Parliament. At this stage an unknown quantity. Might be worth a flutter in the late stages.

There are a number of minor parties contesting some seats in the election. The Trades Union and Socialists Against Cuts candidates have made consistent, steady, if somewhat slow, improvements in the number of votes they have garnered to their Lincoln City Council candidates, since the last county contest in 2009. Fielding 6 candidates, up from just 1 last time. Not expected to win any seats, but may cause trouble for Labour in Lincoln. The British National Party have fielded 4 candidates, down from 22 in 2005. Considered, by those in the know, to be on their last legs, probably destined for the knackers yard. The Greens have fielded 1 candidate, down from 3 in 2009. Slightly surprising given that the party now has a MP, since the 2010 General Election.

Finally, there is that last special group that contest elections. Independents. Real ones. Not Lincolnshire Independents but  people standing who are not affiliated to any party. Actually independent. There were 20 Independent candidates last time around and this time 22. Despite popular myth that apathy is increasing; that people just simply are not interested in politics any more. As this is not a grouping or a party they move all individually in their own unique directions. An independent is not normally a contender in a contest, unless there is a very specific issue in a locality. Incumbert independents can usually be expected to retain their seats. There are none on the council at the current time. So do not expect the old grey mare to make the final furlong in record time.

In conclusion, there are 314 candidates contesting the 77 divisions of Lincolnshire, averaging out at about 4 candidates contesting for each seat. In 2009 there were 282 candidates. This time around everyone has the opportunity to vote Conservative or Labour. Most people have the option to vote UKIP. For a party that for years claimed to be the 'third party' to only field candidates before less than half the electorate is shameful. Whilst not all parties have stood in every division, it is nevertheless good to see a number of minor parties increasing their offering of candidates to the voters. It is good that there is a breadth of choice from the far-right to the far-left and everything in between. It is good for democracy for voters to have a real choice. And soon, voters will go to polling stations across the county an make that choice.

Bad Night For All Parties in Gainsborough East By-Election

Liberal Democrats in West Lindsey were breathing a heaving sigh of relief last night as their candidate, Cllr. Mark Binns, emerged as the winner, just, of the By-Election for the vacant seat on West Lindsey Dsitrict Council within the Gainsborough East Ward.

The By-Election was called for Thursday, 14th February 2013 following the death of Cllr. Mel Starkey, Liberal Democrat (Gainsborough East), who passed away at the end of October 2012.

However, there was little comfort, or good news to be taken by any of the four parties contesting the seat.

The Liberal Democrats who had a commanding 56.6% of the poll when last contested in 2011 dropped 27.96 percentage points losing nearly half their supporters. Cllr. Binns also has one of the smallest majorities of any of the thirty-seven district councillors. He equals that of Cllr. Bridger, Liberal Democrat (Market Rasen) as both men have majorities of 20. Only Cllr. Darcel, Independent Group (Fiskerton), Cllr. Dobbie, Liberal Democrat (Gainsborough North), and Cllr. Patterson, Conservative (Scampton) have smaller majorities - 19, 19 and 10 respectively.

Meanwhile Mr. Mike Devine, the Labour candidate, faired badly. Widely expected to win, he came second, with the Labour vote down by 10.35 percentage points compared to the average poll from 2011. In spite of this failure, some consolation was provided in a swing of nearly 19% to the party, from the incumbents.

The United Kingdom Independence Party candidate, Dr. Howard Thompson, came third in the contest. He did considerably better than predicted, directly preventing a Labour victory. UKIP did however slip from the second place which they achieved in the Lincolnshire County Council elections in 2009, for the divsion which covers the same area as Gainsborough East and some of Gainsborough North wards.

Mr. Richard Butroid, the Conservative candidate, had little to console himself with ending in fourth position. The party's poll remained relatively static, when compared with the average poll from 2011, up 0.66 percentage points. The performance was better than predicted. However stoic Conservative supporters in the area, the changes in the electoral geography of the ward have left the party in a worse position.

Gainsborough East Ward
West Lindsey District Council

Mark Binns, Liberal Demcrat - 169 (28.64%)
Richard Butroid, Conservative - 129 (21.86%)
Richard Coupland, Labour - 149 (25.25%)
Howard Thompson, UKIP - 143 (24.24%)

Turnout: 598 (11.44%) | Spoilt Ballots: 8

Swing: 18.81% from the Liberal Democrats to Labour

Gainsborough East By-Election Candidates Revealed

Four candidates have been revealed as contesting the by-election, on Thursday, 14th February 2013, for the vacancy in the Gainsborough East Ward of West Lindsey District Council, caused by the death of  Melvyn Starkey, Liberal Democrat, in late October 2012.

At the top of the ballot will be Mark Binns, Liberal Democrat, seeking to retain the seat for his party. He unsuccessfully challenged for a seat in Gainsborough North on the district council in 2011. He is a Gainsborough Town Councillor and was first elected in a by-election in 2008, subsequently re-elected in 2011. It is believed he is a member of the St. John's Ambulance. Expectations are high for Mr. Binns, the ward last voted in 2011 and backed his party with a whopping 57%. With the Liberal Democrats slumping in the polls expect an upset. Likely to finish second or third.

Next on the ballot is Richard Butroid, the Conservative Party Candidate, who is hoping that local electors will support him, so that he can join the ruling Conservative Group at the Council, and really deliver for the people of Gainsborough East. Recently married to Jenine and with a great-grandfather who was a councillor for Gainsborough; Richard hopes to be the second member of the family to represent the people of Gainsborough. Having trained as an electrician he moved into the Health and Safety sector a few years ago and now runs his own company. The Conservatives came second in the 2011 poll with 28%. They will be hoping to equal this performance.  Should not be written off, should take second, although a win is not out of the question.

The third name on the ballot is Michael 'Mike' Devine, the Labour Party Candidate, has lived in Gainsborough for more than forty years and attended Queen Elizabeth Grammar School. He worked on the land for eighteen years before becoming a cashier for a firm in Lincoln. Mike has been a member of Unite, the Union, for the pas quarter century. Labour only fielded one candidate in 2011 and got 16% of the vote, despite coming in third place they managed to get their candidate elected. They are confident of beating the Liberal Democrats, despite the ward being stubbornly in yellow hands since the boundary changes and all-out elections of 1999. With Labour riding high in the polls anything less than a win will be a disappointment.

Finally the fourth candidate is Howard Thompson, UK Independence Party, of Claxby, near Market Rasen. Making him the least local of all four candidates. Dr. Thompson stood, jointly, for UKIP in the Nettleham and Saxilby and Nettleham by-elections last September and retained the Party's third place standing in the district contest, and equalled that performance as new entrants in the county contest. A former RAF Police Squadron Leader, he runs his own company providing data information security to local companies. Married to Elizabeth, with three children and two grandchildren. UKIP have had a patchy presence in ward contests in recent elections and did not field a candidate in the 2011 election. They are unlikely to make a break-through in this election, despite a good showing in the 2009 County Council contest for Gainsborough Hill (they came second) in front of both the Conservatives and Labour. They have shown no sign of building on this. Regardless of where the opinion polls put them nationally, they have not demonstrated any deep support locally. They should be able to manage a showing of 12%, slotting them into fourth place.

Gainsborough East By Election Called

A by election will be held next month to elect a district councillor to represent the Gainsborough East Ward of West Lindsey District Council.

The election follows the death of Councillor Melvyn Starkey (Liberal Democrat), who passed away in late October 2012.

Nominations will be recieved from Thursday, 10th January until 12:00noon on Friday, 18th January.

It is widely expected that the election will be contested by the three main parties; Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats. UKIP are also likely to field a candidate. Should the election be contested the residents will be able to vote on Thursday, 14th February 2013.

Above: 2011 Gainsborough East Result

In the last elections for the Gainsborough East Ward, where three councillors were being elected, the Conservatives secured 27.9% of the vote, the Liberal Democrats secured 56.6% of the vote and Labour secured 15.6%. Two Liberal Democrats were elected and one Labour candidate. This is becasue whilst the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats offered electors a full slate of three candidates, Labour only managed to field one candidate. This suggests that the Liberal Democrats have a commanding grip on the ward. This is not the case.

Above: Notional Result for 2011

If the results figure is moderated, to eliminate the disparity of differing numbers of candidates being fielded by the parties in 2011, then the gap between the Liberal Democrats and Labour becomes a tantalising prospect for a real contest. It would put the Liberal Democrats on 43.1% and Labour on 35.6%. The Conservatives would be on 21.2%. This would mean that Labour would only need a swing of around 3.7% to take the seat off the Liberal Democrats.

So if all things were even Labour should be biting at the heels of the Liberal Democrat. However, the Liberal Democrats have slumped in local government polls since 2010. Looking at the National Projected Share of the Vote the Liberal Democrats have gone from 23% in 2010, 16% in 2011 to just 9% in 2012.  Meanwhile Labour have soared from 29% in 2010 to 40% in 2012. The Conservatives have been bobbing around 36% - 38% mark.

Predicting a by election result is not easy; but no one should be putting money on an easy win for the Liberal Democrats. And no one should discount the Conservatives, who have won every local by-election since June 2006.

Double Victory for Conservatives in Local By-Election Contests

Local conservatives have celebrated a double, landslide success in two by-elections held for the Nettleham and Saxilby Division of Lincolnshire County Council and the Nettleham Ward of West Lindsey District Council.

Jackie Brockway, Conservative, triumphed in the Lincolnshire County Council contest while colleage Giles McNell won for the Conservatives a seat on West Lindsey District Council. The seats have not been in Conservative hands since 1981 and 1983 respectively


Nettleham & Saxilby Division Result

 Nettleham and Saxilby Division
Lincolnshire County Council

Jackie Brockway, Conservative - 1,026 (43.36%)
Charles Shaw, Liberal Demcrat - 600 (25.36%)
Howard Thompson, UKIP - 266 (11.24%)
Richard Coupland, Labour - 257 (10.86%)
David Watson, Lincolnshire Independent - 196 (8.28%)
Elliott Fountain, English Democrat - 21 (0.89%)
Turnout: 2,378 (27.98%)

Swing: 22.2% from the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives



Nettleham Ward Result

Nettleham Ward

West Lindsey District Council

Giles McNeill, Conservative -565 (45.02%)
Guy Grainger, Liberal Demcrat - 513 (40.88%)
Howard Thompson, UKIP - 177 (14.10%)

Turnout: 1,270 (31.63%)

Swing: 15.3% from the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives

In Two Local By-Elections Only the Conservative Candidates Live in the Communities they will Represent

Local Team: Jackie Brockway and Giles McNeill are the
only candidates in the two by-elections to live in the area
they will represent.

Local residents are surprised to learn that only the Conservative Party is fielding local candidates in two contests called following the sad and untimely death of Cllr. Ray Sellars who represented the Nettleham and Saxilby Division of Lincolnshire County Council and Nettleham Ward on West Lindsey District Council. 

For the county council seat, Jackie Brockway (Conservative), lives over the road from the doctors’ surgery in Saxilby. Of the other candidates in the county contest three are from the City of Lincoln, Richard Coupland (Labour) lives on the Ermine West Estate, Charles Shaw (Liberal Democrat) resides off Carholme Road and David Watson (Lincolnshire Independent) is based off Skellingthorpe Road. Howard Thompson (UK Independence Party) lives twenty-five miles away from the Conservative Candidate in Claxby, between Market Rasen and Caistor. Finally the furthest flung candidate, Elliott Fountain (English Democrat), is based forty miles away from County Hall in Boston.

However, it is not just in the county council seat contest where the Conservatives have fielded the only local candidate, in the contest for the district council seat too, for the Nettleham Ward, Giles McNeill (Conservative), went to primary school in the village, has grown up in Nettleham and lived in the village behind the Infants' School for more than two decades. Guy Grainger (Liberal Democrat) is from Market Rasen and Howard Thompson (UK Independence Party), previously mentioned, from even further away, will contest this seat as well.

The Liberal Democrats have a consistently highlighted the view that elected councillors should live in the local communities they seek to represent. In 2011 they made it clear that, because one of the four candidates lived in Market Rasen, voters should vote for local candidates:

"You can’t do better than to vote for two Councillors who have an excellent record of hard work for the village and who both actually live in Nettleham".

Now they have the audacity to put forward an individual who is from Market Rasen!

If a candidate from Market Rasen, in their view, by virtue of where they live, was not suitable last year, why would one be suitable now? It seems to be nothing short of hypocrisy.

One Nettleham villager commented:

"I can not believe that someone from outside the village would make a good representative for us. Especially if they live as far away as Market Rasen, or beyond."

There has also been concern that Mr. Grainger, a former Market Rasen Town Councillor, was censured in 2010 by the Standards Committee at West Lindsey District Council. The Decision Notice read that:

"[Mr. Grainger] failed to declare a personal and prejudicial interest when considering the Town Council’s response to the former Town Clerk’s claim to an Employment Tribunal… The sanction imposed for this breach is that Councillor Grainger be censured."

Hopefully the residents of Nettleham, Grange-de-Lings, Riseholme and Greetwell will vote wisely on Thursday, 6th September 2012.

Labour Gain Lincoln East In By-Election

Cllr. Robin Renshaw, Labour (Lincoln East), was celebrating his victory and return to Lincolnshire County Council in the by-election that took place in the city yesterday. He returns to the authority after being kicked out of the seat in the 2009 contest and will serve for a term of seven months, until May next year.

Cllr. Renshaw won the contest with 563 votes (48.79%), a majority of 249 over Mr. Simon Parr, Conservative who received 314 (27.21%). The Labour Party's vote was up 14.47 percentage points since the 2009 contest, whilst the Conservative poll was down 11.82 percentage points. The swing was 8.56% to Labour from the Conservatives.

In third place was Mr. John Bishop, Liberal Democrat, with 95 votes. The Liberal Democrats share of the vote was down by 18.42 percentage points since the last County Council elections.

In joint forth place were Ms Pat Nurse, for the United Kingdom Independence Party, and Mr. Nick Parker for the Trade Unionist Socialists Against Cuts, who both received 79 votes (6.85%).

In sixth place was Cllr. Elliott Fountain, for the English Democrats, who polled just 24 votes (2.08%).

The turnout was very low with just 18.47% of voters making the effort to cast ballots in the contest.

By Election Called for Lincoln East Division

Map showing Lincolnshire County Council Divisions within the City of Lincoln

A By Election has been called for the Lincoln East Division of Lincolnshire County Council.  The poll is expected to take place on Thursday 2nd August 2012.

The poll takes place following the resignation of Cllr. Rev. Sara Cliff, who resigned after attacks in the press over the level of her attendance at Council meetings, despite a change in circumstances which had led her to be working over 100 miles away from the city and ill-health.

Mr. Simon Parr

The Conservative candidate, Simon Parr, will defend the party's majority of 86 from the 2009 Local Elections.  This was an unexpected win for the Conservatives three years ago.  Speaking to the Lincolnshire Echo Mr. Parr said:

"It doesn't matter what happened with Sara because we are where we are and we must move on as a party. 

"I will fight this campaign on a positive basis. 

"This will be my first venture into politics if I get elected, but I love it. 

"I don't care whether people are socialists, Muslims or Bristish, if they have a problem I will do my best to help them."

Mr. Parr is a mature student at the University of Lincoln where he is studying International Relations and Politics, living on the banks of the Brayford Pool.

Result of the 2009 Contest in the Lincoln East Division

The Labour Party are the main opponents. Their candidate, Robin Renshaw, is challenging to take  back the seat he lost in the 2009 poll. They should expect to do well based on their track record of success in City of Lincoln Council elections in recent years, although selecting somebody who lost the seat last time around may prove decisive.

The Liberal Democrats have a dwindling presence within the division. With the party often in single figures in national polls they did well in the 2012 Local Elections to remain in third place in the Abbey Ward, which makes up the majority of the division. A poor showing would not be unexpected. The local party has struggled to find a viable candidate and have chosen North Hykeham Town Councillor, John Bishop as their candidate.

Mrs. Pat Nurse

The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) candidate is is the only woman in the contest. Pat Nurse is a freelance journalist with four children from Waddington. UKIP did not contest any of the Lincoln City divisions at the time of the 2009 poll, so there form in this contest is difficult to gauge.  They have had a patchy presence in more recent elections in the Abbey Ward having not fielded a candidate in May.  Despite this they are increasingly organised as a party of protest and will be seeking to improve their position. The party took third place from the Liberal Democrats in the recent 2012 Local Elections for the City of Lincoln Council.  They will be looking to do as well in this poll.

Mr. Nick Parker

The Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts (Socialist Party) were first to declare their candidate, Mr. Nick Parker, who petitioned for the by election.  He is a veteran of a number of recent campaigns within the city.  They have fielded a candidate in the Abbey Ward in recent elections and were just two votes short of third place in the 2012 Contest.  The Socialist Party will be having a good night if they come in higher than fifth place.

The English Democrats have selected Elliott Fountain from Boston as their candidate.  They have not contested a single council seat either on the city or county councils within the Lincoln Constituency, with a track record of only 1.3% of the vote for their candidate at the General Election in 2010 Mr. Fountain will be fortunate to accrue more than a couple of dozen votes. expect them to come in sixth place.

Lincoln Council Election Strengthens Labour's Grip on Power

The Labour Party have firmed up their control of Lincoln City Council following local elections for one third of the authority held on Thursday, 3rd May 2012. 

In a dramatic set of results, which saw incumbent Conservative councillors and candidates fall to advances made by Labour and the wipe-out of Liberal Democrat representation on the authority, announced shortly after half past midnight, Labour emerged as the clear winners.

The Labour Party received a majority share of votes across the city polling 51% (up six percentage points), the Conservatives came second with 32% (down four percentage points), the United Kingdom Independence Party jumped to third place with 8% (up one percentage point), the Liberal Democrats were knocked into fourth place with 7% (down one percentage point). The Trade Unionist and Socialist Against Cuts polled a respectable 2.5% (up half a percentage point). The British National Party received less than a third of one percent.

The Labour party held the seats in the Abbey, Boultham and Park wards. They also picked up seats, from the Conservatives, in the Birchwood, Brancbridge, Castle, Glebe, Minster & Moorland and, from the Liberal Democrats, in the Carholme ward.

The Conservatives managed to only defend the seat in the Hartsholme ward. 

Following the contests the political balance has changed to 24 Labour, 9 Conservatives and 0 Liberal Democrat Councillors. This gives the Labour administration an increased majority of 15.

The turnout in the election slumped to a new low of 26.81%.

The most eye-catching result was undoubtedly in the Boultham Ward, which has been a staunch Labour stronghold, where Mrs. Carly Sharples (Conservative), who came second, greatly improved her Party's poll.

The closest contest was in the Bracebridge ward where the Conservative Deputy Leader, Marc Jones lost his seat to Cllr. Bill Bilton (Labour) by only 7 votes with 712 and 719 respectively.

Lincoln is the Local Battleground to Watch in May

Whilst for many across Lincolnshire 2012 represents a break in the usual electioneering that we have come to expect at this time of year, not so for residents of Lincoln, who still elect the City Council by the 'thirds' method, an authority tipped to be at the centre of attentions over the coming weeks.

Lincoln City is the only part of the county that still holds elections for council members every year. Lincoln City Council has one third of its members elected each year and in the fourth year elections take place for the city's County Councillors.

Lincoln City Council, which covers the majority of the the parliamentary constituency - both before and after proposed changes to the constituency boundary - is a 'bell-weather' constituency. With Conservative Karl McCartney MP, gaining only the slightest of majorities (1,058) in the 2010 general election, the machinations of the locals are observed with keen interest by the political classes.

Currently the Council is under Labour control, with a majority of one. The Labour party took back control from a Liberal Democrat supported Conservative administration in local elections last year in 2011.

The Local Government Information Unit says of the Lincoln contest:

"The political balance in Lincoln is on a knife edge between Labour and Conservatives. The outcome this time has extra significance as this is now a top parliamentary marginal."

UK Polling Report suggests that under the current boundaries Lincoln is the Labour Party's nineteenth target at  a future general election. And with substantial changes to the Lincoln constituency boundary, Mr. McCartney will have to work hard to gain votes from new voters to the constituency.

Forty-six individuals from six parties will contest these seats. The three main parties, Conservative, Liberal Democrats and Labour, have all fielded full slates of eleven candidates. The United Kingdom Independence Party are fielding seven, there are five candidates from Trade Unionists and Socialist Against Cuts and the British National Party have fielded one candidate in the Bracebridge ward.

Already the Lincoln Labour Party have been throwing big guns at the contest; the selection of their parliamentary prospective candidate (Lucy Rigby) and visits from David Miliband and Caroline Flint are giving impetus to a campaign which appears to lack foot soldiers - no reports of any literature being delivered. Meanwhile both Conservative and Liberal Democrat campaign teams have been out delivering literature to local residents in key wards.

Time will tell if the Lincoln Labour Party are suffering the ill-effects of a manpower shortage. The Conservatives in the city have determination to win and have mobilised a significant force of volunteers to aid their campaign. This suggests that Lincoln's Conservatives may do respectably on election day.

Roger Helmer's Defection: Man Overboard

Giles McNeill writes:

Anyone who knows Roger Helmer, knows that Roger was always firmly on the right-wing of the Conservative Party.  Roger’s view was clear on the European Union: Britian would be better off out.

When Roger was the guest speaker at the Nettleham & District Conservatives Annual Branch Dinner in 2008 he was preparing for re-election as a Conservative candidate in elections in 2009. We talked together for some time, even getting into the intricacies of the D'Hont Method used for the Election of European Parliamentarians from Britain and associated territories - which I found absolutely fascinating, and imagine would render most people bored senseless. Roger has a degree in Mathematics and so the number crunching may have appealed on an intellectual level if not as a satisfactory way of election individuals.

The saga of Roger’s resignation, which has led to his defection to the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), began last year when he indicated he wanted to resign to give his successor a chance to be run-in before the European Parliamentary Election scheduled for 2014.  As Roger writes, in an open letter to Conservative Party Members:

Giles McNeill (Left) with Roger Helmer
(Right), October 2008

“I have always argued that a parliamentarian who finds himself no longer able to support the Party should stand aside in favour of another Conservative, and I have roundly criticised former colleagues who failed to do so, like Bill Newton Dunn and Edward McMillan Scott.  But in this case, as you will be aware, I sought in good faith to do the honourable thing, and to resign in favour of the next-in-line Conservative, Rupert Matthews.  Indeed in October I announced my intention to resign at the end of 2011.  But that plan was frustrated by the deliberate obstinacy and recalcitrance of the Party Chairman.

“I wrote to Baroness Warsi in early January saying that I would not resign without a clear undertaking on the succession issue.  I have to tell you now that no such undertaking has been received.  In these circumstances I believe that I have fulfilled my obligation to the Party, so far as I am able, and I therefore withdraw my offer to resign.   I had made it clear to Baroness Warsi that I would not allow the stand-off to continue indefinitely, so I will now plan to serve out my current term until 2014.  

“By seeking to do what I took to be the decent thing, and offering to stand aside in favour of another Conservative, I hope at least that I shall retain the respect of Party members in the region.  They have selected and reselected me three times over the years, and I know that for the most part their views are closer to my own than to those of the Party leadership.”

Statement by Rupert Matthews on the Defection of Roger Helmer MEP to UKIP

After Roger Helmer's announcement last October that he was to retire as an MEP his successor was to be Rupert Matthews. Following Roger Helmer's new announcement that he is to defect to UKIP instead this will not now happen.

Rupert Matthews said:

"I am shocked and disappointed at Roger Helmer’s decision to betray his public promises to the people of the East Midlands and his private promises to his colleagues. 

"Since Roger announced that he was standing down as the MEP, many people in the East Midlands have spent a considerable amount of time and effort in preparing for Roger’s retirement, my taking his place in Brussels and the unavoidable upheavals that this would have entailed. I myself was looking forward very much to representing the people of the East Midlands and the Conservative Party in the European Parliament. It is unfortunate that all this time and effort has been rendered useless by Roger’s actions.  

"I wish to make it clear that I have no intention of following Roger to UKIP and that I will continue to serve the Conservative Party as loyally as I have in the 28 years since I joined the party. I will be working hard to ensure the return of Conservative candidates in the local elections in May and at the next European Election in 2014."