YouGov Poll Shows 83% Support For Non-Universal Child Benefit Measure

A poll by YouGov for The Sun seems to have excited people over the headline figure of 83% backing the child benefit changes last night.  However, the actual story is more nuanced.

The principle of limiting Child Benefit so that people on higher incomes do not receive it is hugely popular.  83% of respondents supporting it, with 15% opposed.  The question though, was about the principle of the policy.

YouGov asked about the practicalities of the policy, and the way that a couple both earning £30,000 would keep child benefit, while a couple where only one worked and earned £44,000 would not.  41% of people agreed that this was a fair compromise given the cost of fully means testing child benefit, but 46% thought it was unfair and that the policy should be based on a proper means-test.  So the principle of the policy is extremely popular, but people are split over the implementation of it.

A lot of assumptions are being made in the media and elsewhere that the 15% who oppose this measure are the same 15% or so of people who will be directly affected.  This is a lazy assumption. An assumption that is almost certainly not true.

Obviously in most cases people who suffer from a policy are more likely to oppose it and people who benefit from it are more likely to support it, but it is rarely if ever so clear cut. There are no income cross breaks in the YouGov table, but looking at the other cross breaks, 21% of Labour supporters oppose the idea, compared to 9% of Conservative supporters. 18% of ABC1s oppose it, but so do 10% of C2DEs.

Poll Watch: Three New Polls Indicate Conservative Lead Growing After Labour's Budget

There are three new polls available tonight which will be published in tomorrow's papers; they all show a post-budget swing towards the Conservatives.

For The Sun YouGov has Conservatives 39% (up 2%) | Labour 32% (no change) | Liberal Democrats 18%(down 1%).

Meanwhile in The Independent, ComRes has Conservatives 37% (no change) | Labour 30% (down 2%) | Liberal Democrats 20% (up 1%).

Finally in The Daily Express, newcomer Opinium has Conservatives 38% (up 1%) | Labour 28% (down 2%) | Liberal Democrats 16% (up 1%).

YouGov’s daily poll for The Sun gives a seven point lead, up from five in YouGov's Sunday Times poll and equalling the highest they have given the Conservatives this month. ComRes show the Conservatives unchanged, but Labour dropping two since the end of last month. Opinium have a ten point Conservative lead.

The changes themself are not big, but every poll since the budget has shown a trend back towards the Conservatives. There seems little doubt that the budget has shifted things back towards the Conservatives, at least a little. The question now is whether it a lasting shift in public opinion, or whether it is just a brief downwards blip for Labour that will pass as new events take over the political news agenda.

Poll Watch: Conservatives Regain Lead Over Labour As Lib Dems Get Post Conference Bounce

Three polls are out today. An ICM survey for The Guardian has Conservatives on 40% (up 2%), Labour on 31% (n/c) and the Liberal Democrats on 20% (down 1%) based on changes from the ICM survey in the Sunday Telegraph at the weekend. This gives the Conservatives a nine point lead and will settle party nerves and would potentially give a small majority to Mr. Cameron, if a non-uniform swing occurs, with marginal seats swinging more greatly to the Conservatives. The forty percent mark is seen as a crucial benchmark for the party being successful in a General Election.

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,002 adults by telephone on 12-14 March 2010. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.

New pollsters Opinium have a poll in The Express which gives the Conservatives an even greater lead of eleven points. And gives figures, with changes based on their previous poll from last week, of: Conservatives on 39% (up 2%), Labour on 28% (down 2%) and the Liberal Democrats on 16% (n/c)

Opinium surveyed 1,951 adults in England, Wales and Scotland for the voter intention survey Friday, 12th through Monday, 15th March 2010.

Finally the YouGov daily tracker, published in The Sun, has a more modest conservative lead of 5%, but once again shows a widening gap between Labour and Conservatives. The poll has Conservatives on 37% (n/c), Labour on 32% (down 1%) and the Liberal Democrats on 21% (up 4%), with changes based on the previous day's poll. The Liberal Democrats seem to be enjoying something of a post conference boost.

GE2010: General Election Summary Day #12

More progress for the Welsh Conservatives. A YouGov poll last night for ITV Wales had the Conservatives on 32% (Up 1% point), Labour on 35% (Up 1% point), Liberal Democrats 13% (down 1% point) and Plaid Cymru 13 (down 1% point). That would mean nine more Conservative MPs from Wales if translated into a uniform swing on election day. UKPollingReport has more (here).

Labour plan five new pledges for the General Election campaign. Gordon Brown is drafting five reasons to vote Labour and five reasons to reject the Conservatives. ConservativeHome has more (here).

Overnight, there were newspaper stories of immediate cuts from the Conservatives, cuts in the arts budget, cuts in the aid budget, cuts in middle class welfare, cuts in defence. ConservativeHome front page was plastered with it (here). However, The Economist was not satisfied (here):

"The squeezes [George Osborne] identified amounted to £7 billion ($11.4 billion) a year. In 2009-10 the deficit is £178 billion."

David Cameron underperformed at Prime Minister Questions on Wednesday. The Evening Standard (here) did not think Mr. Cameron has really been winning PMQs for a couple of months now, nor can it be said he been losing. He normally provides enough of a strong soundbite for the news bulletins and that is where his battle is to be fought.

Grant Shapps, Conservative (Welwyn Hatfield) and Shadow Housing Minister, has had a hit rate in the media which has been truely remarkable. He had a big splash in yesterday's Sun (and other newspapers) which showed that government spending on propaganda advertising was soaring in this election run-up. Labour ministers, said Mr Shapps,

"should not be raiding the taxpayers' pockets to try to keep their own seats."

Meanwhile Nick Clegg, the Leader of the Liberal Democrats told Attitude, a gay lifestyle magazine, that David Cameron was

"someone who is 'very difficult to trust' on the issue of gay rights."

I wonder if he will play as dirty in the televised debates?

Watching the media, watching us. One of the most important roles that the blogosphere can play in the election campaign is to keep an eye out for media bias. Tim Montgomerie of ConservativeHome knocked The Telegraph yesterday evening for a story that The Mirror would have been proud of (in fact, it was written by an ex-Mirror journalist now working for the Barclay Brothers). Iain Dale has a bigger target today. He's got the BBC's One Show in his cross-hairs for an appalling piece of anti-Conservative bias last night.

Acknowledgement: ConservativeHome | ToryDiry | 15/01/10

GE2010: General Election Summary Day #3

The so-called SnowStorm Plot which found Prime Minister, Gordon Brown MP, faced a backbench revolt looks likely to melt away. Only the usual suspects have really backed the call of Patricia Hewitt MP and Geoff Hoon MP (two people rumoured to have wanted the High Representative of the European Union job that Gordon Brown MP gave to Baroness Ashton last year) for a secret ballot of Labour's MPs. The Labour Party now looks more divided after today. A massive gift so early in the Long Campaign for the Conservatives.

Gordon Brown won another PMQs. Brown seemed to just edge in front of Cameron at Prime Minister's Questions today. He was able to exploit the Conservative leader's unfortunate miscommunication of the party's policy on a married tax allowance on Monday although any feelings of triumph Gordon Brown felt no doubt ebbed away quickly following the SnowStorm Plot which developed throughout the afternoon and into the evening.

A good day for Eric Pickles. CCHQ was quick with a statement from the Conservtive Party Chairman and his media performances were perfectly pitched throughout the afternoon. Watch him here.

A bad day for the BBC's Nick Robinson who initially told viewers that there was no plot shortly before Simon Cavalier-Jones (Lincolnshire CF VIce Chairman) posted on The Conservative Blog and learnt there was one. He also dissed bloggers for suggesting that there was a plot. Guido Fawkes enjoyed some YouTube revenge.

The Spectator remains on the attack against Conservative Party Leader, David Cameron MP. Spectator Editor, Mr. Fraser Nelson, has adopted an aggressive tone towards Mr. Cameron since the start of 2010. The Conservative Party will not like the front cover of this week's Spectator. The edition includes an article by David 'Jeremiah' Selbourne that attacks every aspect of the Cameron agenda.

To conclude there is a new YouGov poll in the Sun this morning which have the Conservatives on 40%(no chance), Labour on 31%( up 1 point), Liberal Democrats on 17%(no change), so virtually no change from the previous YouGov poll between Christmas and New Year.

Conservatives Surge to 17 point lead in YouGov Poll

The Conservative Party have recieved a significant bounce in YouGov's daily tracking poll, commmissioned by Sky News, following a daring strategy of telling party members and the public that hard choices needed to be taken.

Con 44% | Lab 27% | LibDem 17% | Others 12%

Full Tracker here.