GE2010: General Election Briefing Day #16

Hoon's evidence to Iraq inquiry dominates the day's political news. How much - if at all - is the Iraq Inquiry hurting Labour? There's no big revelation from today's questioning of Geoff Hoon although Liam Fox has said that it confirms that Brown handicapped Britain's troops with insufficient financial support. Equally, not much came from Alastair's Campbell day in front of the cameras last week. But the drip, drip, drip of constant coverage (with journalists like Glen Oglaza tweeting frenetically all day) can't be good for Labour. It's a reminder of one of the Government's most unhappy periods. And this is all a warm up to the Inquiry's big moment when Tony Blair takes the hot seat.


Action on binge drinking was the political theme of the day. Both parties put own statements including this from Chris Grayling.
Inflation is back and it will make budget control a lot harder. Iain Martin at the Wall Street Journal worries that this is going to make public sector pay control a lot trickier:

"Imagine you are the head of a team of trade union negotiators anywhere in Britain right now. You will just have clocked that inflation is 2.9% and rounded it up mentally to 3%... Millions of workers who accepted pay freezes or small raises last year will be less minded to agree to a repeat than they would be if inflation was stuck at, say, 1%. So, sentiment shifts, people start to grumble and unions put in claims of 4% in the hope they can then settle at or above the 3% 'going-rate.'"

George Osborne MP, the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer and Mr. Boris Johnson, Mayor of London, issued a joint attack on bank bonus culture. At a lunch for London and European heads of the global banking sector the Mayor of London said that he was

"shocked and baffled by the persistence of this excessive bonus culture at a time when millions of Londoners and thousands of businesses are struggling."

The Shadow Chancellor added:

"Boris and I also present a united front when we say: large cash bonuses are unacceptable at this difficult time. Bankers need to show they understand that we are all in this together."

Acknowledgement: ConservativeHome | ToryDiary| 19/01/10

GE2010: General Election Summary Day #15

Despite the question that Iain Martin of the Wall Street Journal blogged earlier today, the Conservatives policy on marriage is becoming clearer. As a first instalment on David Cameron's marriage policy we are likely to get a £600m Transferable Tax Allowance within the early years of a Conservative government for all children under the age of three with married parents. In a family green paper the Centre for Social Justice sets out the reasons why the two parent family is such a force for social well-being. The Daily Mail continues to blast Labour for neglecting marriage, as in an editorial today. It accuses Labour of being 'deluded' and 'opportunist'. The Conservative policy is praised as 'creditworthy'. The family is one of the top concerns of the paper's Editor, Mr. Paul Dacre. Prime Minister Gordon Brown is undermining the last hope he had with Mr. Dacre by allowing Ed Balls MP to trash the Conservaitve plan to save the two parent family.

The Conservatives promised today to make teaching a noble profession. Jonathan Isaby blogged on the Conservatives' education manifesto. Central to today's launch was the idea of recruiting the very best graduates for the classroom. The media have had fun with the fact that Conservative maths adviser Carol Vorderman got a 'Third' at university but education is the Conservatives' biggest idea and you can't have good schools without good teachers. Recruiting the best and sacking the worst will be an affront to the unions and may require larger class sizes is is likely that most parents will strongly approve.

Reducing Britain's carbon footprint is apparently the lowest priority of Conservative MPs. According to ConservativeHome who released the results of a survey of 141 candidates in the Conservatives most winnable seats that showed broad support for David Cameron's emphasis on the NHS, poverty-fighting and civil liberties. Only 8 of the 141 regarded climate change as their top priority, however.

Fifty candidates have gathered to have their photographs taken with David Cameron today. The Financial Times has the story (here). It will be interesting to see how Gordon Brown features in Labour literature at the General Election.

Acknowledgement: ConservativeHomes | ToryDiary | 18/01/10

GE2010: General Election Summary Day #14

The Conservatives remain solidly ahead in the opinion polls. Two polls over the weekend suggested the Conservatives remain on course for victory. YouGov had Conservatives 40% (down 2% points), Labour 31% (up 1% point) and Liberal Democrats 18% (up 2% points). Meanwhile ComRes had the Conservatives 42% (up 4% points), Labour 29% (no change) and Liberal Democrats 19% (no change). This gives a Conservative lead of between 9%-13%.

a YouGov poll for MigrationWatch UK suggests a little more volume on immigration could seal the deal for the Conservatives. Nine times as many voters in marginal seats are likely to vote for David Cameron as vote against him if he emphasises his promise to cap immigration to about 50,000pa.

Nick Clegg, Leader of the Liberal Democrats did well enough on BBC1's Andrew Marr Show this morning, suggesting that he will be far from a pushover in the expected election debates. However, he slipped up when Kevin Maguire of The Mirror asked if he had donated towards the Haiti Earthquake. Not yet, he flustered. Nick Clegg has been prone to this sort of gaffe he famously slipped up when asked about the value of the basic state pension (he said it was just £30!) and when asked about the number of his lovers (he answered the question).

The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) took a swing to the intolerant right with a pledge to ban the burkha. The move designed to stop leakage of UKIP votes to the BNP provoked strong criticism from both The Times and Conservatives MEPs. They called UKIP 'un-British'.

Fraser Nelson highlights the scale of likely Conservative defence cuts. In his News of the World column the Editor of The Spectator warns that Cameron's 'staggering' and 'puzzling' pledges on NHS and international aid will mean 20% defence cuts if they are not reversed.

Ed Balls attacked David Cameron's marriage policy. Ed Balls who has temporarily lost out to Lord Mandelson in the internal Labour debate as to whether Gordon Brown should emphasise a class-based appeal to core Labour voters or a Blairite appeal to aspiration. With Harriet Harman, however, he continues to bash the Conservatives for wanting to recognise marriage in the tax system. William Hague and Philip Hammond hit back for the Conservatives, noting that Labour's Britain was almost unique in not recognising marriage.
Tomorrow David Cameron and Michael Gove launch the families and education chapter of the Conservative draft manifesto. The Conservative leader gave a taste of his 'we'll-help-families-who-do-the-right-thing' message in this morning's Mail on Sunday (here).

GE2010: General Election Summary Day #8

A good day for the Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrat's Leader, Nick Clegg announced his decision to retract some of his party's favourite policies given the changed economic circumstances; this will have struck most voters as reasonable. Rather than specific policies, sounding sensible is the Liberal Democrats' biggest advantage. Clegg will have reinforced that idea today.

Frank Field MP, who was the first MP to support Hoon & Hewitt's plot last week, offered some support for the Conservatives today. He turned up to David Cameron's speech at the thinktank Demos, at the Conservatives' invitation. ConservativeHome's report on speech here. Mr. Field is too much of a Labour man to ever defect to the Conservatives, maybe he will be invited to play a role in any future Conservative government? He could take a job on welfare, the teaching of British history, democratic reform or even immigration.

David Cameron gave an excellent performance on Five Live this afternoon. Cross-examined by Richard Bacon and callers for an hour he came across as measured, warm and consistent. We should not underestimate the vote winner that Cameron is going to be for the Conservatives once the election campaign is up and running properly and voters are focused on a choice between him becoming PM and Brown staying at Number Ten.

CCHQ needs to reassure grassroots Conservatives on the shortlisting process for John Maples and other 2010 retirees. Conservative Grassroots reacted furiously in the blogosphere to John Maples' decision to stand down now and thus disenfranchise his local party members in their selection of his successor. Mr. Maples position at CCHQ as Head of Candidates means he should not have any role in drawing up the shortlists of three for his seat. CCHQ will want to avoid a row with local parties so close to an election.

And Finally, Conservatives take 16% and 13% leads in two new polls out tonight.

• Angus Reid Public Opinion have figures showing no change on their previous poll on a sample of 2,000.  Conservative 40%, Labour 24%, Liberal Democrats 20%. Read more about the Angus Reid survey at PoliticalBetting.com.
• Meanwhile, on a sample of 1,509, Populus for The Times (here) has Conservative 41% (Up 3% points), Labour 28% (Down 2% points), Liberal Democrats 19% (Down 1% point).

Acknowledgement: ConservativeHome | ToryDiary| 11/01/10

GE2010: General Election Summary Days #5, #6 & #7

It has been done carefully but the Conservative are talking about immigration again. The level is a fraction of that which immigration received under former leader, Michael Howard MP, but there is definitely more attitude from the Conservatives on the topic. Yesterday we had Chris Grayling's announcement of a battery of measures that would deal with the weakest link in the current immigration system; the student visa system. Today David Cameron told Andrew Marr that he wanted to cut immigration to 'tens of thousands'.

In the graph from Fraser Nelson we can see the significance of that pledge if it was honoured.

The Conservatives have announced three other policies in recent days that should encourage the Conservative core-vote. On Friday there was the pledge to give headteachers more powers to sack failing teachers. Overnight there was the well-received commitment to provide scholarships to the children of servicemen killed in action and this morning David Cameron announced measures to help small businesses.

The events in Northern Ireland may be good for the Conservatives if the General Election is called sooner rather than later. The troubles of First Minsiter, Peter Robinson and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) could benefit the Northern Ireland alliance of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) and Conservatives. Tim Mongomery's wrote about this on ConservativeHome. Ten seats is the upper limit of possibilities but five or six seats is now very possible (potentially giving David Cameron more MPs in Northern Ireland than in Scotland).

It was another bad weekend for 'Shambles' Brown. Congratulations to Iain Dale for publishing Peter Watt's insidery account of the 'shambles' of Brown's Downing Street operation and of the aborted £1.5 million plan for a honeymoon election in 2007. Watch the Sky News report here.

Alistair Darling spoke the truth about public spending. David Cameron told Andrew Marr that the Chancellor's interview for the Saturday Times was an important moment and it was. Darling warned that

"The next spending review will be the toughest we have had for 20 years."

He told the truth and the fact that he said it shows he's no longer under Brown's thumb.

No big movement in the polls following the SnowStorm plot. It is only one poll but ICM's survey for The Sunday Telegraph suggested the Conservative lead is stable at about 10%. The ICM numbers are 40% Conervatives, 30% Labour and 17.4% Liberal Democrat.

Acknowledgement: ConservativeHome | ToryDiary | 10/01/10

GE2010: General Election Summary Day #4

The big freeze became the big news story of the day virtually wiping out election stories. None of the parties launched big new initiatives, wisely deciding that any election initiatives would be buried in a snowdrift of weather stories.

David Miliband MP, The Foreign Secretary, was almost as much a loser from the SnowStorm Plot as Brown. Andrew Grice noted that the Foreign Secretary had sat on the fence during all three botched coup attempts against Brown 'and fallen off'. David Miliband's hesitation, yesterday, will have appealed to neither the loyalists nor the insurrectionists. As One Blogger put it:

"He ended up looking both tame and disloyal at the same time."

Mr. Miliband was, not of course, the only Cabinet minister to give a grudging endorsement of Brown. Iain Martin speculated that Darling even asked Brown to consider quitting. Andrew Neil concludes that the legacy of the SnowStorm Plot will be the "half-hearted" support that the PM enjoys from his Cabinet. Read my summary of events today here.

The Sun has fresh figures from YouGov in this morning's edition and show a shift back towards the Conservatives. The topline figures with changes from yesterday’s poll prior to the SnowStorm Plot are Conservative 42% (up 2 points) Labour 30% (down 1 point) Liberal Democrats 16%(down 1 point). The exact timings of the poll were between 4:00pm Wednesday and 12:00noon yesterday. Sample size was 2,832.

In Lincoln the Lincolnshire Echo published their first 'Question Time' article with Liberal Democrat Prospective Parliamentary Candidate, Cllr. Reg Shore (more here).

Janet Daley of The Daily Telegraph despite the chilly weather seems to be warming to the Conservative Party Leader, David Cameron MP. ConservativeHome summarised the Mr. Cameron's BBC Radio 4 Today Programme interview here. Janet Daley enjoyed his willingness to apologise for his marriage policy gaffe. She thought he has been coming out of his PR man years and becoming himself:

"Admitting that he had simply screwed up earlier in the week with his unintentionally ambiguous wording on the marriage question, he sounded as
engagingly frank as he generally does in private conversation."

There have been a stream of anti-Hilton stories in recent days (another one last night) and it was rumoured by Tim Montgomerie to be 'coming from within the Conservative machine'. Mr. Steve Hilton has been vital in broadening the Conservative Party's appeal.

And finally, spotted on Gray's Inn Road, London; a defaced Tory poster spotted byVirtual Economics.

GE2010: General Election Summary Day #3

The so-called SnowStorm Plot which found Prime Minister, Gordon Brown MP, faced a backbench revolt looks likely to melt away. Only the usual suspects have really backed the call of Patricia Hewitt MP and Geoff Hoon MP (two people rumoured to have wanted the High Representative of the European Union job that Gordon Brown MP gave to Baroness Ashton last year) for a secret ballot of Labour's MPs. The Labour Party now looks more divided after today. A massive gift so early in the Long Campaign for the Conservatives.

Gordon Brown won another PMQs. Brown seemed to just edge in front of Cameron at Prime Minister's Questions today. He was able to exploit the Conservative leader's unfortunate miscommunication of the party's policy on a married tax allowance on Monday although any feelings of triumph Gordon Brown felt no doubt ebbed away quickly following the SnowStorm Plot which developed throughout the afternoon and into the evening.

A good day for Eric Pickles. CCHQ was quick with a statement from the Conservtive Party Chairman and his media performances were perfectly pitched throughout the afternoon. Watch him here.

A bad day for the BBC's Nick Robinson who initially told viewers that there was no plot shortly before Simon Cavalier-Jones (Lincolnshire CF VIce Chairman) posted on The Conservative Blog and learnt there was one. He also dissed bloggers for suggesting that there was a plot. Guido Fawkes enjoyed some YouTube revenge.

The Spectator remains on the attack against Conservative Party Leader, David Cameron MP. Spectator Editor, Mr. Fraser Nelson, has adopted an aggressive tone towards Mr. Cameron since the start of 2010. The Conservative Party will not like the front cover of this week's Spectator. The edition includes an article by David 'Jeremiah' Selbourne that attacks every aspect of the Cameron agenda.

To conclude there is a new YouGov poll in the Sun this morning which have the Conservatives on 40%(no chance), Labour on 31%( up 1 point), Liberal Democrats on 17%(no change), so virtually no change from the previous YouGov poll between Christmas and New Year.

GE2010: General Election Summary Day #2

Conservatives could spend twice or even three times as much as Labour. The Times had the story of the day with speculation that the Conservatives might be able to spend two to three times as much as Labour on the election campaign. Expect Labour to accuse the Conservatives of 'buying' the electorate.

There was renewed speculation about Gordon Brown's position as Labour leader. There is probably a majority of Labour MPs who accept that Brown is a loser but no majority behind an alternative candidate. We are now too close to an election unless one Labour figure can have a Michael Howard-style coronation as leader. Otherwise the electorate will look at a leadership contest with disdain, even disgust.

Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat's Leader refused to be drawn on coalition thinking. In his most important intervention of the campaign so far the Liberal Democrat leader wrote that there would be

"no backroom deals or under-the-counter “understandings” with either of the other two parties."

A key message for the Conservatives in Lib-Dem/Con marginals is that a vote for Clegg might keep Labour in by the back door.

Greg Clark and Nick Herbert were the Conservatives stars of the day. Nick Herbert got good coverage this morning for his pledge to create a supermarket ombudsman to prevent large retailers from abusing their market position and Greg Clark has got big coverage all afternoon for riding the cold weather stories with a dire warning about dangerously low gas reserves.

The Conservative poster campaign, launched on Monday, continues to get lots of attention. The Daily Mail says it is costing half a million pounds. The Times was reporting that Mrs. Cameron approved the photo. The Times' Sam Coates explored whether the image of the Conservative Party's leader was airbrushed.

Alistair Darling refused to rule out increasing VAT to 20%. It had been reported that Labour planned to frighten voters with allegations of secret Tory plans for a VAT hike. That will be impossible if they can't rule it out themselves.

GE2010: General Election Summary Day #1

The Conservatives emphasised David Cameron, the economy, health and compassion in yesterday's poster launch. The poster 'I'll cut the deficit, not the NHS' will be on 1,000 poster sites around the country. In a departure for UK politics the poster is strikingly personal. It show's David Cameron promising to cut the deficit and protect the NHS, personally - not the Conservatives. The big new health policy contained in the first chapter of the draft manifesto - a commitment to tilt NHS resources towards the poorest communities - confirmed the continuity of compassionate conservatism.

By lunchtime Labour's accusation of a £34bn hole in Conservative plans were quickly rebutted by the Conservative's Treasury team. The CCHQ response was fast and comprehensive. From what was available in advance last night in the papers and online Labour will not get a good press from their dossier in today's papers.

Reports of the death of the COnservative commitment to a marriage tax allowance were being exaggerated. The BBC's Nick Robinson was trying to hype this up but there is no evidence that0 there has been no big switch in the Conservative's position.

Chris Grayling has returned as the leading 'attack dog'. The Shadow Home Secretary has been in the news commenting on topics well beyond his portfolio, including a rebuttal of Gordon Brown's new year message.