Lincoln Council Elections 2014: UKIP Exceed Expectations But Fail To Win Any Seats

The overall result of Lincoln's City Council's 2014 local elections have been a reassuringly predictable affair. However the detail shows that the UK Independence Party performed better than expected, whilst Labour and the Conservatives both underperformed. 

There were only one set of local elections taking place in Lincolnshire yesterday. Lincoln City Council is the only authority in the county that still retains the system of electing it's members by 'thirds' - the process where each year one third of the seats are elected and in the fourth year elections take place for Lincolnshire County Council.

Click on the table above to enlarge.

The table above shows the predicted result for each party, in grey, based on a standard uniform swing calculation generated using data from ukpollingrport.co.uk on 5th May 2014. The second column for each party shows the actual result and the third column the difference between the two.

Lincoln is a key battleground in the coming General Election between Conservative incumbent Karl McCartney MP and Labour's Lucy Rigby who have been slogging it out for over two years now and have a year ahead of them of an increasingly bitter rivalry.

The net effect of the elections to Lincoln City Council was a loss of two seats by the Conservatives to Labour in the Birchwood and Minster wards. This means that the council now consists of 27 Labour members and 6 Conservatives.

The UK Independence Party failed to make any gains, despite polling a respectable 23.33%. This will be a substantive disappointment for them for two reasons; firstly that with such a healthy share of the vote they were not rewarded with any representation; and secondly that their share of the vote is down slightly on the local elections in Lincoln last year to Lincolnshire County Council.

Labour, despite success in securing new members on the council, have nothing to be happy about in terms of their share of the vote. Their share of the vote is down 2.13 percentage points on last year's county elections in the city and 12.62 percentage points on the comparable local elections of 2012. Since the 2010 local elections this would mean that Labour has only improved their share of the vote in the city by 4.68 percentage points. Given that Karl McCartney MP's majority is 2.32%. It is now possible to say, with some certainty that either could win the seat in 2015. However, on the basis that governing parties usually recover as an election approaches this poor performance by Labour is likely to prove insufficient to ensure Ms Rigby's election. Mr. McCartney will in all likelihood be Lincoln's Member of Parliament for at least the next six years.

It was surely a disappointing night for the Conservatives. Despite campaigning hard they struggled to convert votes into seats. Their share of the vote was up three quarters of a percentage point compared with the previous county elections in 2013. The loss of Cllr. Yvonne Bodger in Minster Ward means that she will not become Mayor of Lincoln for the coming civic year; depriving Lincoln's Conservatives of a significant platform in the run-up to the general election.

The Liberal Democrats performed much better than the prediction; however, this is more likely due to the fact that they are now only getting votes from their most ardent supporters. Nevertheless their share of the vote was down two thirds of a percentage point when compared with last year's county elections, and down 2.20 percentage points compared with the local elections of 2012.

Of the other parties and independent candidates contesting these elections, the Trades Unionists Socialist Against Cuts underperformed and continued to slip in terms of their share of the vote which was down 0.60 percentage point from their hight of 2.42% in 2012. The Greens performed considerably better than expected having fielded candidates for the first time in the city since 2011. The two independent candidates underperformed against the prediction.

EXCLUSIVE: Labour Leader to Visit Lincoln

Leader of the Labour Party, Ed Miliband MP, will be visiting Lincoln tomorrow.

Complete details have been a closely guarded secret of the local Labour Party's team.  However, the Labour leader is expected to visit the Royal Naval Club on Coulson Road, off the High Street, in Lincoln tomorrow morning.

Cllr. Ms Karen Lee, Labour (Carholme Ward), the Mayor of Lincoln, is expected to meet her party's leader, but has caused some controversy by seeking to wear the chains of office as she meets the Leader of the Opposition.  Traditionally the role is seen as non-political, so the wearing of chains at a political event sets an unsettling precedent.  It is also a surprise that the Mayor has found time for the meeting when it is understood that she has turned down the opportunity of attending an awards ceremony for St John's Ambulance at the Lincolnshire Showground, believed to be on grounds that she was unwilling to get time off work.


Cllr. Ms Lee courted controversy last summer when she wanted to break with the eight hundred year-old tradition of the Mayor of Lincoln being styled as 'Mr. Mayor', when her term started earlier this year. She has also been criticised for not attending events for which she is booked. She left guests shocked by sending the Deputy Mayor to cover for her at the opening of the Doubletree by Hilton on the Brayford.


It is expected that the Lincoln Labour Party will use Ed Miliband's visit to announce their candidate for the Lincoln East Division By-Election expected in July or early August.


UPDATE:


The Labour Leader also caused controversy and has been forced to apologise to Karl McCartney MP for not informing him of his intention to visit the constituency. Mr. McCartney says his office has received an apology from Mr. Miliband after he failed to inform the Lincoln Parliamentarian of his intentions. Mr. McCartney said:

"The Speaker has reiterated the long-standing convention and practice that MPs should let the residing MP know that they are visiting their constituency." 

"Unfortunately, Mr Miliband did not inform me. I have now received an apology by email."

Lincoln is the Local Battleground to Watch in May

Whilst for many across Lincolnshire 2012 represents a break in the usual electioneering that we have come to expect at this time of year, not so for residents of Lincoln, who still elect the City Council by the 'thirds' method, an authority tipped to be at the centre of attentions over the coming weeks.

Lincoln City is the only part of the county that still holds elections for council members every year. Lincoln City Council has one third of its members elected each year and in the fourth year elections take place for the city's County Councillors.

Lincoln City Council, which covers the majority of the the parliamentary constituency - both before and after proposed changes to the constituency boundary - is a 'bell-weather' constituency. With Conservative Karl McCartney MP, gaining only the slightest of majorities (1,058) in the 2010 general election, the machinations of the locals are observed with keen interest by the political classes.

Currently the Council is under Labour control, with a majority of one. The Labour party took back control from a Liberal Democrat supported Conservative administration in local elections last year in 2011.

The Local Government Information Unit says of the Lincoln contest:

"The political balance in Lincoln is on a knife edge between Labour and Conservatives. The outcome this time has extra significance as this is now a top parliamentary marginal."

UK Polling Report suggests that under the current boundaries Lincoln is the Labour Party's nineteenth target at  a future general election. And with substantial changes to the Lincoln constituency boundary, Mr. McCartney will have to work hard to gain votes from new voters to the constituency.

Forty-six individuals from six parties will contest these seats. The three main parties, Conservative, Liberal Democrats and Labour, have all fielded full slates of eleven candidates. The United Kingdom Independence Party are fielding seven, there are five candidates from Trade Unionists and Socialist Against Cuts and the British National Party have fielded one candidate in the Bracebridge ward.

Already the Lincoln Labour Party have been throwing big guns at the contest; the selection of their parliamentary prospective candidate (Lucy Rigby) and visits from David Miliband and Caroline Flint are giving impetus to a campaign which appears to lack foot soldiers - no reports of any literature being delivered. Meanwhile both Conservative and Liberal Democrat campaign teams have been out delivering literature to local residents in key wards.

Time will tell if the Lincoln Labour Party are suffering the ill-effects of a manpower shortage. The Conservatives in the city have determination to win and have mobilised a significant force of volunteers to aid their campaign. This suggests that Lincoln's Conservatives may do respectably on election day.

GE2015: Lincoln's Labour Party Select General Election Candidate

Lincoln Constituency Labour Party have held a closed primary and selected their candidate for the next General Election.

Members of the party have selected Cllr. Ms Lucy Rigby, Labour (Halloway Ward (Islington Council) to be their candidate. Cllr. Ms Rigby was first elected to her local council in 2010, and is reported to have helped campaign for Labour candidates in the Lincoln City Council elections last year, which saw the authority return to Labour control. She is a lawyer by profession, with experience in Private Practice and the Office of Fair Trading as well as having worked at the Hague and practised EU competition law in Brussels.

Criticising the selection, one local activist, Mr. Edward Mayers, on the Labour List website, said:

"It would have been a much easier sell for Labour to select a local candidate in my opinion.

Lincoln's previous Labour MP, Ms Gillian Merron (1997-2010), had a background as a local government officer, and as a UNISON and NUPE trade union official, before becoming involved at a senior level with the Labour Party's 1992 general election campaign.